Since May this year Afghanistan has a lame duck as president. President Karzai’s term in office was supposed to end in May. Karzai wanted to organize elections during spring time but was stopped by the election commission and the international community. The opposition accused him of trying to clear the field of challengers since they couldn’t be ready to campaign by that time. The fact that insurgents control more than half of the country was another reason to postpone the elections. Under pressure of the international community and because of the decision made by the election committee, Karzai was forced to organize elections on 20^thAugust. This raised the question of who would rule the country from May until August. In the end the Supreme Court decided, against the will of the parliament and the opposition, that Karzai could stay in power until the next president was chosen. Analysts feared a power vacuum and the opposition was afraid that Karzai was going to take advantage from his presidential status to organize his campaign.

In the meanwhile American and British troops are cleaning up the South to ensure the elections can take place without fear of being terrorized and manipulated by the insurgents. This is one of the main reasons why I mentioned in my previous contribution that this military operation is crucial for the future of the country. If the insurgents hold control over these areas and prevent people from voting, enemies of the government could claim the next administration is elected undemocratically because of the low voter turn-out. This could lessen the legitimacy of the next president and ultimately destabilize the country.

Up until now Karzai has been doing exactly what the opposition feared. He used the power given to him as president to break up the Northern Alliance’s political front by buying of Uzbek and Tadzjik warlords. One prominent member of the opposition with national outreach, Mr. Fahim, is currently serving as his vice-president. This is how he build a patronage-client system only topped by the best patrimonialistic networks set up by dictators in post-colonial Africa. It works like this: clan elders and warlords promise loyalty and votes to Karzai, if Karzai shares bits of his power with them. But this doesn’t mean there is no hope at all for the opposition. One theory goes that Afghans are so fed up with the corruption and the inefficiency of Karzai’s administration that they will disregard the advice of their elders and vote against Karzai. People in remote areas (almost anywhere outside Kabul and the major cities) have nothing to do with Kabul. They have been taking care of themselves during their whole life and stopped expecting support from the government. These votes could be decisive if it wasn’t for the division of the opposition by previous mentioned reasons. The Americans know this as well and are kind of fed up of the corruption in this government. Analysts say that one of their future strategies could be to neglect the central government, which has no power in the provinces anyway, and to invest in local government structures which are in direct contact with the local population

The main challenger for Karzai is a man who’s parents had a lack of creativity. His name is Abdullah Abdullah. He originates from the Panjshir region and therefore has a lot of support from the Mujahedeen in the North. He’s from Tadzjik and Pashtun origin and was a leader of the Tadzjik faction in the Northern Alliance. A poll suggested that Karzai had 42% of the votes while Abdullah had only 7%. But this was before the campaigning started. The constitution states that if none of the candidates wins 50% of the votes, a run-off between the two leading candidates will be organized. Breaking up the opposition, like Karzai did, favours the incumbent but it also makes the event of a run-off more likely. In that case we can expect that the loosing candidates will negotiate deals with the challenger and join up behind him during the run-off. If that would happen, nobody can predict which direction this country is heading up for. (And I’ll probably get a second vacation)

23-07-2009 om 19:37 geschreven door gijoom  

Since a couple of weeks operations Khanjar and Panchai Palang are central in all news bulletins about Afghanistan. Although American and British forces suffered a steep rise in casualties, the operation was cited an ongoing success. Last week, when the operation was entering its third week, I’ve learned in the security briefing that the Americans cleaned up only one district of the Helmand Province. This can hardly be called an achievement if we consider that the insurgents’ strategy is to first withdraw and observe before striking back with a vengeance.

The success of this operation will determine the future of this country. If the British and Americans can’t win over a province while relocating a big part of their available resources combined with a surge in troops, the future of Afghanistan doesn’t look bright. The challenges for the security forces are multiple but the one that causes the most casualties, especially at the British side, are called Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). They use roadside bombs and body-borne IED’s to slow down military convoys in order to attack them in guerrilla-style to cause more damage. British and American forces, aware of these IED’s, need to take counter measures and progress slowly through Helmand Province.

In the meanwhile the Americans don’t forget about Pakistan. During the height of the surge US-drones bombed the border area of Pakistan and Afghanistan and killed dozens of insurgents on the Pakistan side of the border. A regional approach is crucial in this war. In the past insurgents fled to the other side of the border when the ground got too hot under their feet. This time Pakistan’s military was positioned across the border waiting for the insurgents.

I don’t know if it is a logic consequence of the relocation of the military’s resources to the South but in the meanwhile the situation in the North of the country, previous a pretty safe place, is deteriorating. During the day, the situation in the city of Kunduz is bearable but at nightfall the city gets penetrated by insurgents. I heard they even marked a UN-building to warn the local national staff not to come to work anymore because an attack is pending. A source in the Ministry of Interior, who wanted to be anonymous, said that the only reason they are not attacking the insurgents in the Kunduz-area is because it is harvest time. The insurgents control most of the farmlands and force the farmers to pay taxes. An attack on the insurgents in the harvesting period would be a catastrophe not only for the local farmers but also for the food security in the country. We will see what happens in springtime and during winter.

As you can see the dangers for a soldier are totally different than for the expats in Kabul. Before the biggest threat for an expat was being kidnapped by a criminal organisation or the insurgents. I always thought it was better to be kidnapped by a criminal organisation since they are only interested in the ransom. But apparently since recently they prefer to sell the kidnapped person to the insurgents. Anyway, since the latest security briefing the biggest threat changed to a direct attack against a UN-building or staff. I started to wonder how they evaluate this level of threat. Do they conduct interviews with the Taliban? Or they let them fill in some questionnaires through the internet to get to know what their next target is? Personally, I think the only reason they changed the main threat is because elections are on the way.

On a side note, previously I mentioned a general who commanded the Uzbek faction of the Northern Alliance, who was living in the city centre. Well, actually he was my neighbour that time. I forgot his name until I recently read this on the BBC-website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8147383.stm. Apparently he could be responsible for the death of hundreds or thousands of insurgents. Currently he is in exile in Turkey but he owns a TV-station in Kabul next to my previous guesthouse and is reinstated by the government of Afghanistan in the military. If he would be found guilty I wonder who will be brave enough to arrest him. Probably not the Afghan military.

Well that’s all,

take care and until next time,

Gijoom

14-07-2009 om 19:54 geschreven door gijoom  

Good news!!! I found a new guesthouse. It’s very close to the office. It’s a good thing because it’s like a universal desire to live close to your workplace. But the bad thing is that I will really miss my little tours through Kabul. I really enjoyed driving to work, even if it was for only 10 minutes. The place is a bit expensive but quality comes with a price. I have my own toilet and shower. I share a TV-room with 3 other people. There’s a gym, a coffeebar, a pingpong table (luckily for you lorencito, you are not around), a snooker, 2 meals a day, internet and armed guards. Every Thursday we are having a barbecue in our garden. So I think it will be a good place for me. In total around 30 people are living there.

08-07-2009 om 17:36 geschreven door gijoom  

I can be short about security restrictions. Security restrictions are a bitch. I feel like I’m having house arrest for six months. Every morning you have to call in for a UN armoured vehicle to pick you up and bring you to your work. In the evening an armoured vehicle comes and picks you up to bring you to your place. So the only way I get to see Kabul is on the way to work. Luckily we take another route everydayJ

In the weekend you can use a UN vehicle if somebody of your guesthouse possesses one. Last weekend we went to a Lebanese restaurant and did some shopping. Other than that you don’t have any freedom of movement at all. Last weekend we had a security exercise which meant that everybody was locked down from 09.00AM until 02.00PM. This way the people responsible for the security of the UN-staff prepare themselves for the upcoming elections in August. Some people fear this is an ideal occasion for the insurgents to cause some embarrassment for the people in power. Others think the insurgents will keep quiet because they are actually quite happy with the current situation and the current president. President Karzai tends to accept that some provinces are under control of Taliban insurgents. He wants to talk and work out some deal with them to stabilize the country. That’s why the insurgents wouldn’t be malcontent with the re-election of Karzai. Bad idea if you ask me, (of course nobody asks me) we all saw what happened in the Swat-valley in Pakistan.

We also have a curfew. From 11.00PM to 06.00AM we are not allowed to go anywhere. The most unsafe time to be on the street is early in the morning. Most attacks and kidnappings have happened during that time of the day. In general the security situation in Kabul and elsewhere is getting worse. I’ve been hearing it from expats who have been here a while and I’ve been reading it on the security updates we get. Afghans are tired of our presence here and you can even see it in the way they stare at us when we drive around Kabul. Of course the way they look at us is also the result of how we are driven around in those armoured vehicles. I don’t know if they drive so aggressively because they want to prevent their escape route from being blocked or because they feel powerful driving an armoured vehicle. In any case it’s far from pleasant for the local population.

Everywhere you look you can see armed guards in front of compounds blocked by checkpoints and barbwire. Not all of the buildings are protected by the Afghan army. Some of the guards are wearing another kind of uniform. Those guys are members of private militias. Close to the city centre I saw a couple of armed guards from the private militia of one of the former generals of the Northern Alliance. He is an authority for the Uzbek population in Kabul.

Well there is a lot more to tell about security but for security reasons I won’t:)

Take care and be safe,

Gijoom

08-07-2009 om 17:33 geschreven door gijoom  

The flight from Dubai to Kabul was supposed to take 3 hours but our flight managed to take 8 hours before landing in Kabul. What happened was that Kabul International Airport was closed because of a lack of parking space. So we made a stop in Mazar I Sharif. Lots of people based in Kabul were jealous of this because they never had the chance to go outside Kabul while I just arrived and saw another part of Afghanistan.

My first impression while getting of the plane was that it is not that hot. A mild 27 degrees but the sun was burning merciless. Sun block is not a luxury item even if you are exposed to the sun for only half an hour a day.

The security measures outside the airport are drastic. There are checkpoints all around and the military presence was high. No Belgian soldiers as I expected, unless they got very tanned and grew a beard in the time they are present here.

While I was cruising around for the first time in Kabul I couldn’t help thinking I arrived in a normal city in a normal developing country. It even reminded me a bit about Ghana: lots of movement, little shops selling their goods on the street and the chaotic driving style. The only thing that prevented my mind from wandering off to Ghana was the occasional burqa and a lack of music on the streets. One of the first things that I noticed while driving around in Kabul were the differences between the people living here. I had heard about the Hazara population and in the book the Kite Runner they were described as almost Mongolian looking. It’s very easy to pick them out on the street.

As for now I’m staying in a guesthouse with one of my bosses. This is a temporary solution until I find my own place. This guesthouse is a small Russian-speaking community with people from Tadzjikistan, Azerbeidjan and Georgia. And you know what that means. Everybody speaks Russian and everybody drinks Russian. Yesterday we drank vodka, rum and whisky like it was water. But enough about that, otherwise you will think coming to Kabul is all about fun and laughterJ

Yesterday I went to check out another guesthouse. 33 people are living there and I would have to pay around 1100 dollar what is quite expensive. But for this price everything is included: internet, TV, table tennis, attached bathroom. The only thing missing is a gym. Almost every guesthouse here has a gym. In these kind of places it’s important to stay sane in a mental kind of way but also physically. I’m only here for 3 days but I think the main waist of time during the weekend will be: hanging out with people from your guesthouse, visit people in other guesthouses and going to the swimming pool in a hotel or another guesthouse.

Life is kind of easy here. You come home from work (pretty early) and keep yourself busy until the food is ready. Most guesthouses have a cook. Your room is cleaned. In fact you don’t have to do anything yourself. It reminds me a bit of our student life. No worries, everything is taken care of for you. I don’t think I would like to spend my whole life like that. The other day I was talking to the guys from my guesthouse. I was telling them I had a six month contract. They started laughing and said: “Yeah, we started of with a six month contract as well but now I’m entering my sixth year in Afghanistan”. And this wasn’t the only story like this that I heard. My boss said it’s easier in Afghanistan than in any other place to start and make a career in international organisations. You only have to produce some results. My advantage, actually I don’t know if it is really an advantage here, is that I’m still young. And my two bosses can’t help themselves reminding me about that all the time. It’s almost like they feel a personal responsibility for my safety. My contract, which is another kind of contract than theirs, gives me a lot more freedom of movement. But as long as I’m living with one of them they won’t let me enjoy it. And honestly even if I would be allowed I wouldn’t know where to go. The  thing is, you need to know someone with a car or you can forget about going out.

Well that’s all for now, next time I’ll post something, I will talk about the security restrictions.

Take care,

Gijoom

03-07-2009 om 15:44 geschreven door gijoom  

Although Afghanistan had a history of war, bloodshed, drug smuggling and family clans waging war against eachother, much of what is happening now can be traced back to the Cold War and its aftermath. Russia and the US chose Afghanistan as a battleground to fight their war. Russia invaded the country and had an actual presence on the ground while the US fought a proxy-war through arm deliveries to the Mujahedeen fighting the Russians. The constant influx of weapons militarized the society which caused almost total destruction after the Cold War. The Russians pulled out and the Americans took their hands of the country which resulted in a devastating civil war. The decision to turn their back towards this country is thought to be one of the key mistakes that resulted in 9/11. Because in the meanwhile it was the Taliban who conquered most parts of Afghanistan, and eventually Kabul, to bring peace and stability. At first they were welcomed as heroes. But with the peace and stability a costly price had to be paid in return: oppression and religious fundamentalisme. We all remember the broadcasting of the execution of women in the football stadion and the destruction of the Buddha statues in Bamyan.

In the end it was the refusal of the Taliban to give up Bin Laden that caused the US to call for airstrikes and to support the groundtroops of the Northern Alliance. Since then eight years have passed and the country is far from reconstructed not even stabilized. But there is hope. In August presidential elections are coming up and I'm truly grateful I will be in the country for this event. The whole world will be watching Afghanistan. Will the elections finally bring som tranquillity or is a democratic process like this an incentive for religious fundamentalist to cause more suffering. I will try to keep you updated through all the advantages it has to be present in Kabul. If I miss important events or trends please do not hesitate to put me on the right track or to ask me questions about a specific subject.

take care,

Gijoom

03-07-2009 om 11:58 geschreven door gijoom  

I'm a 24 years old and I have been dreaming about working in the field my entire life. Last month I got a phone call that made this dream come true. I was offered the opportunity to work in Kabul, Afghanistan for six months. This blog will keep you updated on everything I experience during my stay here. From my first impressions arriving in the country to deep inside rumours going around in the Afghan and the expat society.

I hope you enjoy it,

Gijoom

03-07-2009 om 11:56 geschreven door gijoom