In one of my previous contributions I mentioned that British and American rhetoric about pulling out and withdrawal plays in the hands of the insurgents and is detrimental for the future of the coalition troops in Afghanistan. This opinion has been confirmed by Michel Semple. Semple was an EU and UN representative who has been a focal point for the Taliban to talk to the institutions he has represented. He has been living in Afghanistan his whole life and kept up the dialogue with Taliban during their rule. In 2007, Karzai kicked him out of the country because he organized talks with Taliban commanders which he believed were held to gather a Taliban army to topple the government.

Semple declared that the Taliban leadership in the Quetta Shura will talk about peace only if they are convinced that the Americans are willing to stay for a long time. This is how he puts it: “When it comes down to it, this war is going to be decided over the decisions of fathers of Pashto young men who are being asked by Taliban commanders to give them their sons to go out and fight against the Afghan government. And at the moment the message that those Taliban commander recruiters are bringing is that give us our son - it's a great fight against the United States. It's a fight against the puppet regime and we're going to chase the Americans out and the puppet regime is going to be toppled. It is the argument, the discussion in those houses which will decide the fate of Afghanistan and also stability inside of South Asia. And anything we can do to change the tenor of that discussion will help so that fathers of those Pashto young men say: that's what you said last year when you took my other son and he's dead and the Americans still haven't run away and the puppet regime still hasn't toppled and actually this year it looks less likely to topple.”

He continues by saying that there are two factions within the insurgents. One faction feels that the costs of sustaining this conflict are not weighing up against the benefits. The other group argues that the Americans are not serious about their mission. They can feel they are winning and anticipate the withdrawal of NATO which would give them a chance to rule the country again. This is what Semple has to say about this: “As far as I'm concerned one of the best things you can do to help the progress of reconciliation of peace is to make sure that those hawks inside the insurgency decisively lose that argument, that it should be absolutely clear that nobody can topple the system which was put in place in Afghanistan by the process.”

Semple believes that to achieve this you don’t necessarily need more troops but another military strategy. He says that the presence of NATO forces in the North of the country is simply a magnet for insurgents to operate in this area. He says that their presence there is unnecessary and could be left to Afghan security forces. Focusing on main population centres instead of going out and looking for a fight would decrease the casualties and make NATO’s mission more acceptable at home which could extend their commitment to operate in Afghanistan. The longer you are prepared to stay, the sooner you can get out.

02-12-2009 om 06:46 geschreven door gijoom