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As you can see I forgot to add scenario 5. Nobody was able to predict what really happened. A first round of elections rigged by fraud was still predictable but what happened afterwards was unseen and unprecedented. The UN that tried to cover up the amount of fraud and as a consequence the sacking of a top UN staff member. The opposition leader Dr. Abdullah Abdullah who pulls out of the race because the election commission and the UN cant ensure a run-off without fraud and the international community that endorses Karzai as a president based on the votes from the first election round which contained massive fraud.
The main question now is: What is happening behind the scenes? Everybody agrees that Abdullah Abdullah came stronger out of this process. Some reports say he and Karzai are negotiating behind the scenes to include some of Abdullahs supporters in the government. Pulling out of the second round could then be seen as a way to put pressure on Karzai. But it remains a question mark if this strategy is working. His rhetoric of the past weeks indicates not. One week ago Abdullah placed himself outside the race because of his legitimate fears of fraud, but didnt say he wanted to boycot the elections. This way he kept initiative and putted pressure on karzai and the international community, to either work on fair elections or to include him in a government. When Hilary Clinton announced that pulling out of the run-off is not an obstacle to declare Karzai the winner of the elections his rhetoric changed. Now hes declaring that the announcement of Karzai as president is unconstitutional. He has a point. Nowhere in the constitution is mentioned that the election commission can appoint a president. It should be the Supreme Court who makes the decision. Remarkably up until now Abdullahs supporters kept quiet, except for some peaceful demonstrations. But nobody knows what will happen in the future. Of course the international community is putting pressure on Karzai to include some of Abdullahs men in his government. But what if Karzai, in the momentum of his victory, feels strong enough to ignore the calls of the international community? Supporters of Abdullah already informed Abdullah himself they are ready to react in any kind of way he wants. Yesterday local media was reported on a visit from the governor of Balkh, a province in the North where Abdullah is very popular, to Kabul where he met Abdullah and allegedly discussed how to proceed. Maybe they feel Karzai wont give them anything and time for action has come. And they are ready for action. A couple of weeks before the elections local people were telling me the price for a Kalashnikov increased seriously because the demand was very high. They thought it was Abdullahs supporters who were buying up guns to prepare for elections. I think we will know more in a couple of weeks when Karzai presents his new, corruption-fighting government.
07-11-2009 om 09:31
geschreven door gijoom 
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