A couple of weeks ago I was watching CNN, Al-Jazeera and BBC and I noticed something. Where before the international news was dominated by Israel, Palestina and Iraq now it is, more than ever, focused on South-Asia. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran were attributed 40 minutes of a one hour news-bulletin. The headlines were the Afghan elections and Obama’s decision whether or not to send more troops, the start of a new offensive of the Pakistan army to root out militants in Waziristan and the Iranian government’s decision on the nuclear issue. In between they were also covering the attack on the Revolutionary Guard in Iran and several attacks of militants in Afghan and Pakistani cities.

One of the reasons for this increased attention could be the shift in mindset that took place in Washington from Iraq towards Afghanistan and Pakistan. The only sign that gives away their continuing interest in the Middle East is their attempt to revive the Palestinian issue which is not that successful as anticipated.

Especially the shift from Iraq to Afghanistan could be a fatal error for Obama. In the beginning of his term Iraq was considered as Bush’s war. A war that Bush himself started and which can not be ended due to the complexity of Iraq’s society. Obama did his best to distance himself from this war and focused all of his resources to Afghanistan, which is considered a more legitimate war. One year later Iraq seems to settle down and is somehow stable while in Afghanistan the American and especially the British public feel like they are on a sinking ship they have to leave as soon as possible. Last week Obama even threatened Karzai that the American forces would leave his country if he didn’t take into account his demands in forming a new inclusive and corruption-free government. In addition, Obama gave him an ultimatum of six months to sack his brother Wali Karzai. You can put pressure on a state leader to make him comply with your demands all you want but if you ask someone to sack his brother it becomes a personal matter. Karzai’s brother is the governor of the southern province of Kandahar. He is also a well-known druglord who does not seem to get the difference between his role as governor and criminal. Last week journalists were reporting on the fact that he was on the CIA-payroll to recruit local militia’s in the fight against Taliban. Apparently he wasn’t doing a very good job or Obama wanted to give a signal to his intelligence services not to work with people like this because now he wants him to be sacked within 6 months. Although Obama’s reasons for this demand are sincere, he wants to give the government more credibility and support from the population, he shouldn’t play things personal. I’m sure there are hundreds of officials just like Wali Karzai who are using their position to make money in drugs and sponsor their private armies.

It sounds very unlikely that the Americans will pull-out of Afghanistan within six months but the very fact that the outside world even thinks they are considering it, has a tremendous consequence for the war in Afghanistan. In neighbouring Pakistan the army started an offensive against the Taliban in Waziristan. They are attacking the Pakistani Taliban, which means the ones who are responsible for the series of bomb attacks in Pakistani cities. But the Afghan Taliban which is responsible for most of the bloodshed in Afghanistan is organizing and operating freely from in their territory. Quetta, a city just over the border inside Pakistan is a well-known Afghan Taliban sanctuary. An entire suburb of this city is inhabited by its leadership. In this city the ‘Shura’, a kind of council, gathers regularly to make decisions on the insurgent’s future strategy. The Taliban’s ‘logistics department’ is also located in this city and provides their fighters with cell phones, motorbikes, money and weapons.

So why is Pakistan allowing them to operate from their territory? The reason is simple. Islamabad fears that the loss of lives and public opinion will eventually lead to the retreat of the international forces. In that case, most probably, Taliban will take power over Afghanistan. Pakistan is anticipating this and wants to have a good relation with the future leaders of their neighbouring country. In this perspective Obama’s threat to leave the country is not very productive in encouraging Pakistan to take on the Afghan Taliban on Pakistani territory.

11-11-2009 om 12:12 geschreven door gijoom