Less than two weeks before polling day, the elections predominate much of the conversations in Kabul. The main topics discussed on the streets and between presidential candidates are: the increase of civilian casualties, the presence of foreign troops, corruption, the deteriorating security situation and the lack of tangible improvements of ordinary people’s livelihood. Two weeks ago, David Milliband and Hilary Clinton, threw a new hot-debated issue in the election pond: reconciliation with moderate insurgents. The American and British governments underwent a reality-check. Forced by an increasing death toll suffered by their forces and a decreasing domestic support for their military presence in Afghanistan, they stated for the first time the possibility of a negotiated settlement. Insurgents who are not ideologically-driven but take part in insurgent activities because of the money or because they were forced, would be encouraged to abandon their guns and participate in reintegration activities set up by the Americans and the Afghan government. The next day Karzai announced he struck a deal with the Taliban in a Northern Province not to disrupt the elections. This province had only a small number of insurgents present and they immediately denied there was such a deal.

On 23^rd of July Tolo TV, a commercial Afghan TV-station, organized a presidential debate. The three most popular candidates were invited but Karzai pulled out shortly before, claiming the TV-station was biased. Karzai’s move made him look bad and was widely criticized. The Independent Election Commission announced that Karzai received 72% of government-run print media coverage compared to 12% for Abdullah Abdullah.

Recent field research suggests that Afghans are less inclined to vote along ethnic lines. 70% of the Afghans is willing to vote for a candidate that doesn’t belong to their ethnicity. A president elected based on his merits instead of his ethnicity could encourage more transparent and democratic institutions in Afghanistan. However, it is believed that because of the high stakes involved in this election, Afghans will prefer to vote along their ethnicity. This could have a disastrous outcome. Karzai’s supporters are based in Pashtun strongholds which mirror Afghanistan’s most insecure areas. The Independent Election Commission says that around 700 or 10% of all polling stations could be closed on election day mainly in these areas due to security concerns. Insurgents have announced to decapitate or execute in other fashionable ways, everyone who has indelible ink on his pinky. Furthermore they stated to wipe out mobile phone towers in order to cripple communication between government agencies and to attack ballot boxes and voting documents. The insurgents have been creating an atmosphere of fear for months now. The intimidation of voters and the closing down of polling stations could result in low voter turn-out in Pashtun areas. This will spark claims of illegitimate elections and could be enforced by a high voter turnout in Northern Tajik areas which are safer than the South and the East of the country. This would be in favor of Abdullah Abdullah who has a strong supporter base among Tajiks.

However this election will evolve, violence will be around the corner. What follows are a couple of the more realistic scenarios for the elections.

Scenario 1: violence, suicide attacks, voter intimidation, coordinated attacks on government buildings are so high in the South and East of the country in the run up to the elections that Karzai will declare a state of emergency which could postpone the elections. He doesn’t want to risk going to the polls when his supporters are intimidated and a low voter turnout is probable. The opposition will fight this decision as Karzai being afraid of going to the polls and wanting to hang on on power. Civil unrest could emerge.

Scenario 2: Karzai wins the first round outright. If this would be combined with a low voter turnout among Pashtuns and a high voter turnout among Tajiks, the opposition will claim the elections were rigged. Afghanistan could find itself in the same situation as its western neighbour Iran, but much, much more bloody. In particular the Tajik-community could react violently. Abdullah Abdullah has already declared to stage mass protests on the streets of Kabul after the announcement of the winner. These protests won’t be peaceful since Kabulis have been talking for weeks about supporters of Abdullah smuggling weapons into Kabul in order not to protest empty-handed.

Scenario 3: Nobody gets 50% of the votes. The Independent Election Commission provides two weeks to count the votes and another two weeks for filing complaints of fraud during the elections. So, the first results will be announced 3^rd of September and the complaints period ends the 17^th. After this period, elections should be organized within two weeks. The possibility that Karzai declares the state of emergency is even higher this time because the tension will be higher and the opposition will round up behind the runner-up. This decision would be regarded as unconstitutional. In the previous contribution I mentioned that Karzai’s presidency should have ended in May. If he would postpone the run-off nobody will perceive him as a legitimate president which could trigger violence all over the country.

Scenario 4: The Independent Election Commission declares the winner after the run-up. Tension will be extremely high and who ever comes second will claim victory and take it to the streets.

Whatever direction this election may go, violence looms around the corner. An additional factor that could be a catastrophe for Afghanistan’s institutions is the break-up of the army. Kabul has a mixed Pashtun and Tajik population. The army exists mostly out of Tajik soldiers. If fighting would erupt among ethnic lines there is a possibility the army may disintegrate and join the factional fighting. If the army would no longer serve Karzai, the only way he can save his presidency is by appealing the international forces for support. If this would be the case it’s unclear if the international forces would get involved or just stand-by and defend key-facilities like embassies and UN-buildings. A crack-down of the international coalition would be perceived as a crack-down on the opposition and would result in bloodshed. Karzai would loose all credibility and be regarded as a puppet of the West. The only credible or capable replacers would be the one you just started a war against or the Taliban.

A lot of analysts and observers predict that the post-election period will be the most volatile period. Before the elections and on election day we will have the anticipated violence caused by insurgents. It is the post-election period, with the announcement of the new president, that could trigger the country in a civil war that could take back Afghanistan 20 years in time. These events could take Afghanistan back to the time when they just kicked out the Russian-backed communist government and fighting amongst Afghans cost the lives of thousands and thousand civilians. Back then, the only ones who were able to put a stop to the violence and bring peace in Kabul were a marginalized group of Pakistani Muslim students called the Taliban. Let’s hope Afghanistan’s contemporary leaders and the international forces won’t let it come to that point.

11-08-2009 om 14:49 geschreven door gijoom