Since a couple of weeks operations Khanjar and Panchai Palang are central in all news bulletins about Afghanistan. Although American and British forces suffered a steep rise in casualties, the operation was cited an ongoing success. Last week, when the operation was entering its third week, I’ve learned in the security briefing that the Americans cleaned up only one district of the Helmand Province. This can hardly be called an achievement if we consider that the insurgents’ strategy is to first withdraw and observe before striking back with a vengeance.

The success of this operation will determine the future of this country. If the British and Americans can’t win over a province while relocating a big part of their available resources combined with a surge in troops, the future of Afghanistan doesn’t look bright. The challenges for the security forces are multiple but the one that causes the most casualties, especially at the British side, are called Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). They use roadside bombs and body-borne IED’s to slow down military convoys in order to attack them in guerrilla-style to cause more damage. British and American forces, aware of these IED’s, need to take counter measures and progress slowly through Helmand Province.

In the meanwhile the Americans don’t forget about Pakistan. During the height of the surge US-drones bombed the border area of Pakistan and Afghanistan and killed dozens of insurgents on the Pakistan side of the border. A regional approach is crucial in this war. In the past insurgents fled to the other side of the border when the ground got too hot under their feet. This time Pakistan’s military was positioned across the border waiting for the insurgents.

I don’t know if it is a logic consequence of the relocation of the military’s resources to the South but in the meanwhile the situation in the North of the country, previous a pretty safe place, is deteriorating. During the day, the situation in the city of Kunduz is bearable but at nightfall the city gets penetrated by insurgents. I heard they even marked a UN-building to warn the local national staff not to come to work anymore because an attack is pending. A source in the Ministry of Interior, who wanted to be anonymous, said that the only reason they are not attacking the insurgents in the Kunduz-area is because it is harvest time. The insurgents control most of the farmlands and force the farmers to pay taxes. An attack on the insurgents in the harvesting period would be a catastrophe not only for the local farmers but also for the food security in the country. We will see what happens in springtime and during winter.

As you can see the dangers for a soldier are totally different than for the expats in Kabul. Before the biggest threat for an expat was being kidnapped by a criminal organisation or the insurgents. I always thought it was better to be kidnapped by a criminal organisation since they are only interested in the ransom. But apparently since recently they prefer to sell the kidnapped person to the insurgents. Anyway, since the latest security briefing the biggest threat changed to a direct attack against a UN-building or staff. I started to wonder how they evaluate this level of threat. Do they conduct interviews with the Taliban? Or they let them fill in some questionnaires through the internet to get to know what their next target is? Personally, I think the only reason they changed the main threat is because elections are on the way.

On a side note, previously I mentioned a general who commanded the Uzbek faction of the Northern Alliance, who was living in the city centre. Well, actually he was my neighbour that time. I forgot his name until I recently read this on the BBC-website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8147383.stm. Apparently he could be responsible for the death of hundreds or thousands of insurgents. Currently he is in exile in Turkey but he owns a TV-station in Kabul next to my previous guesthouse and is reinstated by the government of Afghanistan in the military. If he would be found guilty I wonder who will be brave enough to arrest him. Probably not the Afghan military.

Well that’s all,

take care and until next time,

Gijoom

14-07-2009 om 19:54 geschreven door gijoom