A lot has been written lately about Obama’s decision whether or not to send more troops to Afghanistan. The least we can say is, he’s taking his time. It’s been a couple of months now that General McChrystal, the head of ISAF and the American troops, presented his report, asking for a change in strategy and a surge in troops.

The change in strategy entails a change to counter-insurgency. This means that instead of focusing on tracking down and eliminating high-level Al-Qaeda members by drone attacks or deploying special forces, they would concentrate on protecting civilians and training the Afghan army. The protection of civilians would lead to stability and reconstruction which would lead to an Afghan nation that could resist by itself to the threat of insurgents. But to accomplish this, the forces on the ground need additional troops.

In this light, Obama’s demand to sack Wali Karzai could be an important indicator which direction the Americans will take. If they would want to continue with a counter-terrorism strategy meaning tracking down and eliminating high-level insurgents they need figures like Wali Karzai on their side. Powerful personalities who are balancing between good and bad. People like this have one foot in the world of criminals and insurgents and can be used by the CIA or the military intelligence services to extract information. Wali Karzai was a person like this. He is the most powerful man in the South of the country (where Taliban is the strongest) and was running drug schemes which have alliances with the Taliban. There is a high probability that this made him one of the most crucial assets for the CIA to extract intelligence. The fact that Obama is willing to give him up could mean he made up his mind about the counter-insurgency strategy.

Then there is still the question on how much troops to send. General McChrystal asks for at least 40.000 additional troops in order to be successful in his mission. But Obama already said he will not put the lives of additional troops at risk unless they have a credible partner to work with in Kabul. That’s one of the reasons Obama is taking so long. Now that we are certain Karzai stays in power he wants him to form a credible and widely supported government that hasn’t been tainted by corruption in the past. This seems almost impossible since Karzai promised high functions too many warlords accused of human rights violations in order for their support on election day. In Kabul the rumour goes that the new government will consist out of 8 new ministries on top of the 25 that already existed just to fulfill all his promises. Obama has to balance the urgency for the troop surge to be successful in their campaign and the risk of further supporting a future government that will exist out of warlords. A solution to this could be that they send 10.000 to 15.000 troops in short term. One time Karzai presented his new government they could send another 25.000 to 30.000 troops.

Karzai will be inaugurated 19^th of November. The expectations are that he will announce his new government within two weeks after that.

20-11-2009 om 08:56 geschreven door gijoom