With a few days left, the Giro fever has really started. Whatever the other races this time of the year, comes Frankfurt next stop is the Giro start. And of course it is going to be fun, or is it? For years already now, the Giro d'Italia includes some of the heaviest mountain stages around and this year it is no different! One could even wonder whether the race organizers are not putting a silly amount of stress upon riders and their natural capability to recover?
The race will start on Saturday anyway, regardless of what happens. The prologue in Seraing has a nasty - luckily little - climb in it, leaving space for homegrown Verbrugghe and Gilbert to perform to the best of their abilities, but who will beat the race favorites and the prologue specialists like Savoldelli and McGee?
After three more days of varying rolling Belgium, the pack is of to Italy. A couple of sprint stages apart, they'll have to cope with no less than 9 mountain stages, with four of them finishing at the top of the final climb! Key stages will be the 17th with the finish on the steep Plan de Corones and the last two, including mortifying climbs such as Pordoi, Tonale, Gavia and Mortirolo. All a bit too much if you ask me.
Also, this Giro's parcours doesn't really look like one for Savoldelli, who is a good climber, but not the best. Basso has a great capacity for recovery and is at his best in the final week, so he who beats Basso in stages 16 to 20 is the final winner. Cunego maybe?
A big race, big money, huge crowds of spectators and big names. It's a unfair to dismiss the classic in Frankfurt as one after the 'real' facts. www.henninger-rennen.de shows you how well organised everything is and based upon the start list there, one could expect the following.
Should justice be done, Steffen Wesemann wins the Henninger Turm. He has had great rides in the Amstel and Liège, is part of the major German team and a fast finisher after a heavy race. As well, he will have a team of people who all want to have the classic victory within the ranks of T-Mobile anyway (Ivanov, already 3rd and 4th in previous editions, Kirchen, Rogers, Sinkewitz). The other German team, Gerolsteiner, throws in Haussler, Rebellin (winner in 03, second in 01), Wegmann, Moletta and Markus Zberg (who won in 01, 3rd in 05). The other German part of the field, Erik Zabel, is a team of his own (he already won the race three times, 99, 02 and 05, 2nd in 03, 7th in 04), but might have to deal with team mate Petacchi first (all stage and overall in Rheinland last week!), but T-Mobile will never keep the race that closed that Alejet will still be hanging on for the final sprint. And what to expect from the current German champion, Ciolek, will he survive until the finish?
Karsten Kroon could have finally taken his classic victory (he already won in Frankfurt in 04), but he's not even participating, CSC only has Voigt and Schleck as their major players (quite enough firing power though!). Igor Astarloa might want to finish close before getting the name of being more or less passé anyway. Davitamon is in the winning mood (McEwen, Horner and Evans in Romandie), but probably has Leukemans only (6th in 04). The same goes for Liquigas and Garzelli, although they lack recent victories.
Imagine Danilo Hondo winning this great race (he did finish second after Kroon in 04...). It would be the ultimate classics disgrace.
Nevertheless, some remarks on the side: - none of the recent past winners is present, the most recent one is Paolo Savoldelli (2000 + a stage win), he also was 12th in 01 where he took 2 stages - the 01&02 (Frigo) and 03&04 (Hamilton) winners have been convicted for cheating, the former a bit more heavily than the latter - Bradley McGee won the 04 prologue and his best overall results were 9th (04) and 13th (01) - Oscar Pereiro won the 05 prologue - Valjavec has the following overall history: 10, 4, 24, 22 - Moos has 6, 6, 5, 7, 35 and a stage win in 04 - Ardila was 12th last year and 23rd in 04 - Aitor Gonzalez, who is allowed to race again, was 32nd in 02 and 8th in 01
And now: let's roll! Ready for some serious stage racing.
With a prologue of 3,4km and a final time trial of 20,4km, the Tour of Romandy seems to be set for the stage racer with the better time trialling capacities, but you never know. Romandy is a bit of an awkward stage race. There are still people that come from the classics or who link up via Switserland to the Giro. There are people who still need final tuning for that Giro or those who aim at the Giro only (and therefore only ride well with an occasional peak of race testing). As well, there are the Swiss riders and the guys from Phonak, eager to do well and if possible win the event (lucky for them Landis just took the Tour of Georgia). And there are riders who want to take all the publicity they can get as Giro and Tour are too high an aim.
Last year's top ten is a clear example of this 1. Santiago Botero Echeverry - not present this year 2. Damiano Cunego - not present this year, but he will be one of the main contenders for the Giro overall 3. Denis Menchov - not present this year 4. Alberto Contador Velasco 5. Marco Fertonani - not present this year 6. Alexandre Moos 7. Oscar Pereiro Sio 8. Manuel Beltran Martinez - not present this year 9. Daniel Atienza Urendez 10. Tadej Valjavec
One could easily get started on star ratings for Romandy, but in the end it would be a classification of who is capable of doing what but therefore not planning to do so. Obviously, the most important question - besides who will win the overall - is how Jan Ullrich will perform in the mountains. Or perform in general anyway. So let's browse through the starting grid quickly.
Besides the Ullrich issue, Mazzoleni might perform well and team leaders are looking out for youngster Kohl's performance as well (and Ludewig). Lampre's Valjavec is the team's stand in for Cunego. Davitamon has a lot of doubts these days and could use some positive publicity, most likely from Horner while many want to see how Van Huffel will be doing. Brand new superstar Valverde might want to prove to the outside world he's ready for another stage race win (mind you: he already won Valencia, Murcia and Burgos in previous years!), whereas Pereiro needs some results as well. All of Milram's team seems a bunch of outcasts, but why would Iglinskiy not get pretty far?
Without their team leader Vino, Liberty probably has the strongest team: Contador, Etxebarria, Kachechkin, Jaksche, Aitor Osa and Scarponi. They probably end up winning the event (Contador or Kachechkin?). CSC doesn't seem that solid, but they are working at three different fronts now. Nevertheless, good ol' Julich will ride well. Cofidis is hoping Leonardo Duque finally delivers, whereas Credit Agricole expects Caucchioli to do something similar. At Francaise Des Jeux, Bradley McGee is a strong favorite for the prologue, but beyond that?
Euskaltel hopes Haimar Zubeldia has one of his ups, whereas Saunier has Bertogliatti as a home rider (will Marchante eventually start?). Bouygues' Voeckler will try and win a stage, as well as Liquigas' Gasparotto. Liquigas has an outsider for the overall with Dario Cioni as well. LPR (Beuchat?) seems a bit lost, and AG2R has Mancebo ready, but what will be his next step this year?
Next to Phonak, Gerolsteiner has quite some Swiss riders as well, like the Zberg brothers, always eager. Austrian Totschnig is riding near home as well. QuickStep has a bunch of riders preparing for the Giro I reckon, similarly to Discovery. Will Bruyneel really take the gamble of sending Savoldelli into the Giro, whereas the Tour profile would suit that rider better? Interesting to see how youngster Van Den Broeck will survive. For Rabobank, it is about time Ardila delivers as well (the Colombian syndrome).
For the sprints, there are Bennati, McEwen, Valverde (will he risk sprinting as well?)
LBL was a fantastic race, with so many big names on top of the field, an organiser's dream! Alejandro Valverde is a great winner of a great concluding race of the classic season. And now onto the stage races (with the exception of Frankfurt), with the Tour of Romandy, followed by the Giro, which starts in Belgium (Bettini taking the stage in Namur!).
Ardennes - another youngster or an olympic revenge?
Fantastic, never in this cycling season has a race been so exciting before the start as tomorrow's Doyenne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Except from some Phonak and Discovery big shots racing in Georgia and the ever absent Ullrich, Sunday's race really sees all the big shots at the start (even Simoni).
Last year's winner Alexander Vinokourov seems to have different priorities this year, but then again, he won last year while not being a full 100% either. He has, however, now a very powerful team as David Etxebarria can easily finish in the top 5, Vicioso is a silent close finisher as well and Contador, Kachechkin, Jaksche and Serrano have been close finishers in Liege before and/or are riding strong. Nearly similar a powerful team is CSC. Headed by race favorite Ivan Basso (boy, how great a winner he would be) are the likes of Frank Schleck, Karsten Kroon, Carlos Sastre, Voigt and Vandevelde. A third amazing bunch of power is T-Mobile with their team leader Patrik Sinkewitz riding very strong, as is Matthias Kessler, Mazzoleni and even Wesemann. Kirchen has been quiet recently though, pity. A last member of the powerful four for Sunday, Rabobank, has Oscar Freire ready after a good day's workout around Huy and Michael Boogerd in his other 'native classic'. They might not seem that strong overall as a team, but imagine the likes of Erik Dekker, Thomas Dekker, Posthuma, Weening or Flecha take away in a bunch of escapistes that can go far, if not to the end!
Former winner Davide Rebellin seems weakened, but will be on the top ten anyway. Expectations are high for the Zberg and Fothen brothers, but especially Fabian Wegmann and Stefan Schumacher. Paolo Bettini might be the top favorite for many, but he must be getting anxious by now over all thes youngsters taking over. He has, however, a whole team at his disposal. A luxury none of the previously mentioned riders has. Similarly, most likely Ballan, pretty tired by now, will be helping out Damiano Cunego, who finished 9th last year already. Other team members seem to be there to keep the pressure away.
Sadly, Discovery seems not to have super year so far. Jurgen Vandenbroeck might have his luck and be first Belgian again, but it probably won't be anywhere near the podium. The same result prospects go for about all of Discovery's riders, except, maybe for José Azevedo. As well, someone should kick Mario Aerts butt! He won't finish anywhere near his teammate Leukemans and already accept that before he started, but boy it's about time he kicks again. Or will Cadel Evans be the real surprise of the day? Milram has hopes for Grivko, Iglinskiy and Den Bakker finishing...somewhere. The same goes for Credit Agricole's Caucchioli and LeMevel. Speaking about kicking: hello Rik Verbrugghe, it's about time to deliver again. measure yourself against your team mates Bertagnolli, Chavanel, Duque, Moreni and Monfort and draw your conclusions. Many Bouygeus riders have been pushed to the front by 'L'Equipe' in the last few days, and they might have a (minor though) point: Voeckler, Pineau or Rous should be able to finish around 15th.
Miguel Angel Martin Perdiguero has his now or never race (he finished 7th last year), backed up by team of otherwise decent rouleurs except for Axel Merckx (what was that thing again about kicking again?). But the real Spanish superstar is now Alejandro Valverde and he might very well pull off a legendary two in a row. Obviously, FDJ team managers secretly hope for a strong Valverde-like feat by Philippe Gilbert, but there are reasonable doubts. Other Spanish hopes should come from Saunier's Koldo Gil, even though he has big boss Simoni to look out for. And will Samuel Sanchez finally win a big race?
Danilo Di Luca's closest result ever in Liege was 8th in 2003 and I have strong doubts he will win this year. He remains a strong factor to be reckoned with though. That can hardly be said by all the 'smaller' teams. AG2R can enjoy themselves on Mancebo, but Unibet, Chocolade and Landbouwkrediet seem not to be around for much more than early publicity. Agritubel would love to see Salmon repeat his close finish of Huy and finally, the red Barloworld jersey will be much more in sight than all the others mentioned in this paragraph together. Sauf Liquigas of course.
***** Bettini, Basso, Valverde
**** Sinkewitz, Di Luca, Perdiguero, Boogerd, Freire, Etxebarria, Cunego, Rebellin, Kessler, Schleck, S. Sanchez, Astarloa
Reeling in hilly mileage in the backyard of Toulon (the Mont Caume, a smaller version of the Ventoux!), I missed out on the preps for the Flèche (a faulty wifi did play a part as well). Not that many people made bets other than a Spanish-Italian battlefield and the race proved eveybody right.
However, reading the French newspapers as my main source of information I was concerned with two things: that CSC would try and have a go at another classic race with a rider like Sastre (he eventually finished at 2'30"), but more intriguingly (or annoyingly) L'Equipe posted an interview with Bjarne Riis including clear insinuations by the newspaper about the current level performance of the team (true, seeing Kroon finish third on the Mur de Huy was a bit weird, but then again, who would have expected Kessler in 04 or Shefer in 03?).
Clearly with Armstrong gone now and French riders still not performing properly, they continue doing what they have proven to be able to do best: shooting at the best team with no reason. Whatever mister sixty percent images may be floating around, they are still rumours on the one hand, but even more so, ghosts from a decade ago. Why would they then not question Ullrich on a same level of perseverence? Why not doubt simply everybody outside France? Quite tiring.
Having said that, both the Amstel and the Fleche have added wonderful young winners to the current list of classic superstars. Who knows what Valverde's next big thing is going to be, but he certainly is the first Spanish rider to deliver in both stage races and classics in a loooong time. The Fleche final hour was a great one as well, with all the candidates fighting it out, indeed a Spanish-Italian battle.
In the run up to the Doyenne, let's briefly look at the recent of past of this race, say the last 7 year, no biblical references intended. Four riders have nearly always been close in the streets of Ans: Vinokourov (1-3-61-10-30-7) Boogerd (3-2-3-13-5-17-2) Bettini (4-22-1-15-1-5) Rebellin (11-1-13-9-2-3-14) And they will all be present again on Sunday, although Bettini has a light preference over the others. Have a look at http://www.cycling4all.com/index.php?content=a_cen04a.php, a ranking of all riders of all time on the basis of points depending on the weight of the races the performed well in at that time. Except for Vino (the ranking doesn't include 05 and 06) all four of them are amongst the 100 best riders ever (Bettini and Rebellin would now be close to the top 50!)
Other strong performances by riders most likely on the starting list of the 06 LBL in the past came from (top twenty only) : David Etxebarria (6-12-19-3-2) Celestino (8-4) Kessler (12-6-18-6) Vicioso (10-10) Samuel Sanchez (4-6) Erik Dekker (5-8) Scarponi (7-4) Basso (18-8-10-3) Mazzoleni (13-9-20) Garzelli (2-20) M. Zberg (9-7) B. Zberg (10-14) Den Bakker (8-3) Pereiro (20-12) Aerts (18-16-11) Merckx (16-5) and anyone remember Frank Vandenbroucke (16-11-1)?
Most noted absentees are Ullrich, Julich, Savoldelli and Cunego.
Finally, we're getting somewhere else this cycling season. No disrespect for Boonen and all, but I guess it is about time for the cobblestone classic riders to go and lay low for a while, have rest and for the Ardennes specialist and stage racers to take the stage. The Amstel , the perfect in-between, will miss out on two possible winners: Boonen, who will be lying on a beach somewhere (instead of getting some experience on the winding roads of Limburg) and Van Petegem, down and out with a broken collar bone. Ivan Basso is not there yet either (nor is Jan Ullrich, Alexander Vinokourov or Floyd Landis for that matter), but still: new faces will appear.
Last year's winner Liquigas Danilo Di Luca isn't present either (it is a rather winnerless event this year), although he has Luca Paolini and Stefano Garzelli to back up for him. Interesting as well to see how Albasini and Nibali will perform. According to cycling4all.com's starting list, Davide Rebellin (the winner in 03) isn't sure to start either, which would be a pity as he was performed well in the Tour de Basque. His Gerolsteiner team might lack the leader then, but has plenty of powerful legs to end up with a good result, not in the least with Fabian Wegmann. The Zberg brothers usually perform well in and around Maastricht as well. Their competing Germans from T-Mobile has maybe the most dangerous team. Sergei Ivanov already has finished on the podium before and enjoyed a powerful moment of supreme training in the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, Kim Kirchen hasn't been that strong yet, but he will try and do at least as good as last year (eleventh, but second in the subsequent Flèche Wallonne), Matthias Kessler has a love affair with the Amstel and Patrick Sinkewitz is going strong these days.
A team that has trouble in getting their eight riders together is Davitamon, Mario Aerts, Josep Jufre, Christophe Brandt and Bjorn Leukemans (7th last year), expect one of them to be there in the top ten, but who? Their Belgian counterpart Quickstep seems to have the major candidate for the race, Paolo Bettini, even though he might still need this race to be at his best next Sunday. Filippo Pozzato seems a bit tired, but for some reason that is exactly what Serge Baguet has proven not to be in the Amstel on several occasions. Cedric Vasseur is riding well, but will he start?
CSC puts its bets on Karsten Kroon and Frank Schleck, definitely a better bet than the French of AG2R or Credit Agricole. Bouygues' Didier Rous finished the Basque Tour pretty high up so he can be expected in the races ahead, as are Jerome Pineau and Thomas Voeckler. CofidisLeonardo Bertagnolli on a high level for a while now, so will he crack or deliver? And how are Philippe Gilbert and his Lövkvist and McGee team mates doing?
The races ahead will definitely see more Spanish riders finish close. For starters of course Caisse d'Epargne with Alejandro Valverde and Constantino Zaballa. Euskaltel with Samuel Sanchez, Saunier Duval with José Marchante and the powerful Liberty Seguros with AndreyKachechkin, David Etxebarria and Alberto Contador. It might very well be a Swiss team, but Miguel-Angel Perdiguero is as ready as he can be, supported by Rast, Elmiger and Merckx.
Further teams, like Milram (seeing how Iglinskiy responds to a classic), Lampre (Alessandro Ballan should be worn out by now, or will he prove Boonen's absence from the Amstel wrong, they also have Matteo Carrara and Ruggero Marzoli), Discovery (Azevedo, Devolder, Gusev), Chocolade Jaques (Willems?), Landbouwkrediet (prime time for De Waele and Sijmens), Skil-Shimano (Langeveld) and Unibet (Coenen, Serpellini, Dominguez, Quesada, Ten Dam) are clearly not the strongest teams of the line up, but the will have one rider finished fairly close, I hope.
A wild card was given to Barloworld (anyone for the nationality of this team?) and although everybody thinks about Igor Astarloa only, they might be the surprise of the day as Efimkin, Cox, Sabido, Kannemeyer and Cheula should be able to last long). Will the 06 Amstel be the final return on the big stage of the former world champion?
Finally, the absolute star of the day: the Rabobank team. Pity Marc Wauters hasn't made it to the team as it would then have two great riders in an emotional final line up: him and Erik Dekker. Probably about his last chance to really end close. Should he win, will he retire then as well? Also a strong candidate (he is, always!) is Michael Boogerd, will he repeat his win or his podium places? And what about Thomas Dekker already a team leader in the Tirenno-Adriatico, Pieter Weening and Joost Posthuma, Juan-Antonio Flecha and Oscar Freire? What a team, can they actually loose?
A lot of teams still have to find consolation for missing out on the past classics and semi-classics. The Scheldeprijs however, is such a strange race, that in the end about half of the peloton starting at Antwerp's Grote Markt have some chance of winning it (remember Brasi/Roes for instance). The bets are on the teams who lost out on Sunday's Roubaix troubles: Discovery, but especially Lotto. Or if the wind will be as strong as today, another one from Rabobank? A big problem though is that even the ogranisation's website doesn't have an up-to-date starting list. Some wild guesses then:
***** Boonen **** McEwen, Van Petegem, Roesems, Hoste, Cooke, Hunt, Eeckhout *** Gasparotto, Zabel?, Gusev, Flecha, Serpellini, Van Mechelen, Ciolek, Fischer, Vierhouten, Abakoumov ** De Jongh, Cadamuro, Wauters, Van Loocke, Baldato, Petito, Langeveld * Van Impe, De Maar, Veneberg, Nazon, Vandenbroucke
Great! A great winner of a great race disgraced partially by riders who don't follow the rules, but even more so by the UCI who doesn't know what to do. I remember the Tour of Benelux last year, the Eneco, disgraced because three riders were held up by policemen and UCI officials. This time, whatever the mistake of the organisation, whatever the mistake of the riders, the last thing UCI had to do was to disqualify Hoste, Gusev and Van Petegem. If so, they should also have ousted Boonen, Ballan and Flecha who didn't stop either and so on. Moreover, they should have left things as they were and maybe issue a formal complaint themselves (against the riders and their lack of responsibility, although I wouldn't know how to react myself after 250kms of cobblestones and dust, but also against the organisation). Isn't Paris-Roubaix not als being organized by ASO? Was Jean-Marie Leblanc's fire to the isse maybe not the trigger for the UCI officials to decide against the spirit of the rules? I have seen a lot of silly things in my life and I felt lucky I was following the classic on the radio while on the bike myself, so I wouldn't feel disappointed while sitting behind the telly. This was like having seen a movie, liking it, but then the producer comes out from behind the curtains and tells you has issued another ending to the movie. Absolutely a disgrace, a shame on the UCI! I sure hope either Gusev, Hoste or Van Petegem win the Scheldeprijs, to start with. As well, how sad for Hincapie. Miracles don't happen and it will all be very tight to get him up and running for the Tour now. I hope he wins the Vuelta then Anyway, the fun is over, now on with the serious work. Boonen has decided not to participate in the Amstel Gold Race and I can imagine he is tired and aching for proper rest, but wouldn't one classic more not help him win that classic in a very near future? Now the stage racers get their first bit of the one day racing as well, stars such as Basso, Samuel Sanchez and Contador. Rebellin, Di Luca and Bettini don't seem that overpowering strong yet, so who knows. It would be great for cycling to have Basso on the podium in Liège and subsquently win Giro and/or Tour. Who's there to stop him from doing so anyway?
Paris - Roubaix, the 'hell of the North' another Boonen heaven?
What else would you want to achieve as a classics rider than to arrive at the Roubaix velodrome in the jersey of World Champion? You can bet on it that Tom Boonen and his teammates will have a go at another three riders at the podium (which team manager Lefevre has done before!). He might have left the battles in Ghent-Wevelgem for what they were, but he might be right. It were the others now to fight their wars and win one.
AG2R seems a fairly weak team and will have to count on the échapée du jour (Vaitkus for instance) and a place between 20 and 30 for Pütsep and maybe for Dion. Bouygues Telecom doesn't seem to be that strong either but a Martias or Flickinger can only get more dangerous when a small group is not taken back. In the end Antony Geslin might have a fast finish anyway. Cofidis has to count on a strong Thierry Marichal, Staf Scheirlinckx and fast Jimmy Casper for a bit publicity in their own back yard. One of the two major French teams is Credit Agricole which holds Thor Hushovd, 9th last year and recent winner of Wevelgem, along with veteran Kirsipuu. As well, they will be motivated to achieve a victory for their team mate Saul Raisin who is in pretty bad shape in the hospital. La Française des Jeux might not have the same outspoken candidate, but both they have Frédéric Guesdon, winner back in 97 and still going strong, backed up by Mengin, Mourey and especially by Bernhard Eisel, 7th in Wevelgem and ready for a big leap forwards on the cobblestones of Northern France. Agritubel hardly has any other ambition than making the television broadcast.
One wonders what the hell the Spanish teams are doing here, but mind you Caisse d'Epargne has Portal and Acosta for the escapees, Reynes for a sprint and Florent Brard for a possible new top ten stunt (he finished eighth last year). Nevertheless, they would have more people at the velodrome that Euskaltel I reckon. Or Liberty (beyond Koen De Kort) for that matter. Or Saunier Duval (Ventoso and Pagliarini?).
CSC brings jokerman Fabian Cancellara, 6th and 4th in the last two Roubaix editions and a striking sixth in Wevelgem too along with Lars Michaelsen (twice 5th), Arvesen, Johensen and Ljunqvist. Quite a team! Their counterpart in heavyweight, Discovery Channel, hasn't yet issued a full team yet (source: cycling4all.com Fri 07 01:00), but nevertheless, George Hincapie is oh so ready to take on his half a dozen of top ten places and finally win this classic! But he has to convince Leif Hoste, another candidate to communicate properly. Devolder and Gusev (and Ekimov?) won't be that strong, but still, many teams would like to trade. The third big 'block', Phonak, is being tested again within its own ranks as another doping case is happening. Nevertheless, Elmiger, Hunter, Rast and Murn should be able to rank somewhere close to place 20...
Another big player is Rabobank, with possibly not even a full team, but they bring Juan Antonio Flecha and he is ready for it (3rd and 13th in the last two editions and going strong). I guess a lot of Belgians would love to see a miracle happen and Marc Wauters win, but I guess dreams hardly come true. Nevertheless, it could be his last hour.
The German teams are on the verge of a takeover. Whatever Wesemann, Ivanov and Klier will achieve, chances are high they will be outsmarted by at least one of their own team mates such as Bernucci, Burghardt, Greipel and Schmitz, but especially by Gerolsteiner people like David Kopp (2nd in Wevelgem but new to Roubaix), Lang, Wrolich and especially Frank Hoj, always better in the North of France.
The Italians might think of themselves as too neat for the cobblestones but it would be interesting to see how Lampre's Alessandro Ballan and Enrico Franzoi have fun on the 52sth km of cobblestones. There might be a surprise. Liquigas has to count on veteran Zanini or talent Albasini and seems not a big player. Milram might very well pull everything they got to bring Zabel in the best possible position and it would be great if he could pull it off, but there are strong doubts he can do better than his 2000 3rd place.
The Belgian press continues to bring the clash between Davitamon and Quickstep, but even though Peter Van Petegem might very well have his last finest hour, backed up by a strong Bert Roesems, a raging Nico Mattan and surprising Leon Van Bon, it simply doesn't sound the same as Tom Boonen-Filippo Pozzato being helped by former winner Servais Knaven and strong riders like Van Impe, De Jongh, Hulsmans (15th last year), Cretskens and Nuyens.
In the wild cards one finds a Pieri-less LPR (maybe a break for Khalilov?), Landbouwkrediet (Meirhaeghe, but he has been ill), Skiil-Shimano (Vierhouten, but he never finished close in Roubaix) and Unibet.com (Cooke, Serpellini, Thijs and jokerman Jeremy Hunt, but will they survive beyond the 200km limit?).
***** Boonen
**** Van Petegem, Hincapie, Hoste, Flecha, Cancellara, Hushovd
*** Pozzato, Zabel, Eisel, Guesdon, Brard, Kopp, Van Bon, Franzoi
The weather should be dry, so there might not be a terrible accident when coming down from the Kemmelberg. And besides that, Gent-W is a difficult classic to read. Many top sprinters have made it (Cipo in 02 for instance) but also small groups (Hincapie in 01) and even the odd near solo (Mattan, last year). Absent from a team that wasn't exactly the best, Nico Mattan might very well have been training hard in the last couple of days to prove that last year's debacle was less than a helping hand. As well, Hincapie (one win and three top five finishes in Wevelgem already)will be very tight on a victory already now, not even awaiting Roubaix, as he clearly wasn't very happy with the Tour of Flanders result. Others to watch out for are the former Fassa twin Flecha and Cancellara.
Absolutely true, Tom Boonen is a major star. Yet, the way many people get carried away over him often borderlines a major shame as well. Boonen simply couldn't get rid of Hoste, so was he any better besides faster? What was the Merckxian character of it all? I remember Verbeeck confessing to the press that Merckx was an alien who rode 5 km/h too fast and this after having suffered many deaths in Eddy's wheel. But not this time, in their breakaway Hoste and Boonen were well-matched, until the final meters. Pity that Hoste hadn't studied the Ronde back catalogue, he might have pulled away at the place where Tafi did a couple of years ago. Having said that, Boonen is a superstar and I'm glad that he joined Hoste in some fooling the commentators afterwards.
How far can a dominant world champion, the Armstrong of the classics, go? Lance had its (generally perceived) lesser moment when chasing down Simeoni (even though Hinault has done similar actions without being crucified for it), but what Tom Boonen did yesterday by trying to convince Bert Scheirlinckx (of the world famous major team called Jartazi...) to stop chasing the breakaway (or trying to keep the difference to a minimum, which he managed to get done in the end) was definitely another side of the (generally hailed) personality of the world champion. Surely, there is no harm in Bert doing this Tom? And if so, why not prevent it yourself then?
It said this morning in one of the Flemish sportspapers: Boonen is the enemy number one, especially of the smaller teams. Mind you, smaller teams have their reason of existence as well, and all too often they have a former top cyclist in their team (like Astarloa or Pieri), or even have someone who could either be the échappée du jour or a good ride altogether (the aforementioned Bert, but also Aart Vierhouten, about every member of the Chocolade Jaques team and Tenax' Fabio Baldato and Roberto Petito, the two of them finished inside the Flanders top ten no less than five times). And has no one other than Peter Van Petegem had to undergo a year in a smaller team before he grow to become what he now is?
Anyway, some more considerations. First of all, a hurray for the organizers of the Driedaagse De Panne who have found a great route for their first stage, coming close to a semi-classic in its own right. As well, it was nice to see Spanish riders be so active on the cobblestones and bergskes, especially Luis Leon Sanchez. Pity that he isn't mentioned in any of the provisional starting lists for the Ronde van Vlaanderen. And of course, a final fact is that Discovery Channel is still going to be a factor to be reckoned with. Hoste, Hincapie, Devolder and Gusev are all ready to take on Boonen. They are very well not as strong as boom boom Boonen, but surely Quickstep cannot chase every single breakaway?
Current rating: *****Boonen ****Van Petegem, Ballan ***Dekker, Pozzato, Flecha **Bettini, Nuyens, Hoste, Klier, Hincapie, Petito, S. Ivanov, Gusev, Eisel, Johansen, Ljunqvist, Kopp, B. De Waele
Although, personally, I would favour a win by any of these five: Ballan, Flecha, Gusev, De Waele or Cancellara (and it would be good for cycling as well).
So Tom Boonen has taken away a larger part of the pressure by taking a third E3 Prijs in a row and Oscar Freire is back. Those are clearly the most important conclusions of this weekend. Another one would be that starting lists that are available online should not be trusted. Erik Dekker turned up in France instead of at the E3 and there are more where that came from.
Ivan Basso seems to gearing up for a major year, already near dominating a two day stage race, a fact which is very comforting for the rider himself, but it should be very alarming for that other Tour de France contender, the mph kilo of German talent: Jan Ullrich. Even Alexander Vinokourov is on schedule, taking the final overall in the Castilla y Leon, where he and his LSW team mates clearly outsmarted Discovery Channel, not in the least Yaroslav Popovych.
Having said that, taking this weekend's results in, a first Ronde van Vlaanderen forecast (with hardly one third of the teams already known).
***** Boonen
**** E. Dekker, Bettini, Ballan, Zabel, Pozzato, Paolini
*** Gilbert, Van Petegem, Zaballa, Klier, Freire, Flecha, Cancellara, Devolder, Van Bon, Steegmans, S. Scheirlinckx, Hushovd
** Kroon, Nuyens, Arvesen, S. Ivanov, Petacchi, M. Zberg, Hincapie, Verbrugghe, Kopp, Ljunqvist
* De Waele, Backstedt, McEwen, Wesemann, Burghardt, Hammond
Quite a pity the following people aren't in for the Flanders classic: Astarloa, Basso...
The E3 Prijs Vlaandere has been won by boom boom Boonen in the past two years and of all the (semi) classics in the run to the real thing on Sunday 2 April, the E3 is the most important. Boonen is the overall favorite - again, although this might prove to be exactly what Gert Steegmans can achieve right now. Stefen Wesemann seems not in the right condition yet, but he must have finished about a dozen of times in the top ten. Besides them, about half of the peloton could receive a star rating. The real bets are on the bold ones.
There are 12 typical kaskes to be climbed (a total of about 15km only) and some longer cobble stone sections. The following is a brief status of the star rating of the candidates (mind you, people like Freire could easily receive a five star, but they aim at a close result on the next day, for the Brabantse Pijl):
* Rous, Casper, Marichal, Bodrogi, Mengin, Hoj, Lang, Wrolich, Napolitano, Franzoi, Backstedt, Zanini, Den Bakker, Van Loocke, Muravyev
The Brabantse Pijl has always been a strange race: it contains classic riders for both cobblestones classics and Ardennes classics, there a fsat finishers, sprinters even, and besides the new can of talent, some stage racers are present as well. Nevertheless, the Brabantse Pijl is much easier for rating riders.
***** Freire, Paolini, Ballan **** Kroon, Baguet *** Ljunqvist, Leukemans, Nuyens, Sijmens, F. Willems, Abakoumov ** De Maar, Flecha, Kopp, Monfort, Verheyen, Den Bakker, Serpellini, Coenen, Petito * M. Zberg, Vansummeren, Van Huffel, Rous, Vaitkus, Maccanti, Kleynen
Cobblestones and bergskes - Tour of Flanders tension 1
So right, a nice swoop by Quickstep at Milan-Sanremo, but still a lot of people being left disappointed as a world champion might very well be having team mates take a major classic win, but throwing your hands in the air to take away the attention for being beaten on the finish line is not exactly the 'cannibal' feeling. Maybe Tom Boonen can prove differently in the ten days ahead, but he has definitely some pr to do by answering with his pedals.
Quickstep should be safe anyway for the next few weeks, with Boonen, Bettini, Pozzato and Nuyens, what else can happen but the one victory over the other? The competition might be fierce over the roads winding over cobblestones sections and over the many steep slopes, but still, who would take up the gauntlet in the weeks to come?
Davitamon-Lotto might have an odd nice result by Robbie McEwen, but it looks like Peter Van Petegem is to display not only good form but has to come home with some very good results or he'll be ending his career at Jartazi. Who knows whether Leon Van Bon might be the penultimate jokerman. Gert Steegmans clearly isn't ready for a major role in the team, but he might settle for anything like Dwars Door Vlaanderen or De E3 Prijs. That is, as long as Boonen lets him (at both Het Volk en Kuurne, Boonen sat on his wheel too often). But all in all, there will hardly be a classic victory by a DVL shirt.
Two young Belgians deserve more attention than good old Pete: Stijn Devolder and Philip Gilbert. For sure, they will be the Belgian riders being talked about. Luca Paolini is also ready to start reeling in the close finishes, as is Oscar Freire. Erik Zabel was really strong in Flanders last year and he might be more than just an aid to Alessandro Petacchi in the races ahead. And just how much has George Hincapie being focused on the Tour de France, we'll know soon. Kim Kirchen will be ready to step up his results, although that is more likely to be based in the Ardennes and the Gold Race. Can Sergei Ivanov still play a role, or Erik Dekker? And just how far can Alessandro Ballan jump in progress of one year?
