(A brief update: two names added to the star ratings)
More team overviews doping related but as our previous item (with the 5* rated Fuentes as the overall decisive element in the 06 Tour) already mentioned, the current developments already overtake the previous ones.
Is it just for ASO to not allow people like Ullrich, Sevilla, Basso and Mancebo to ride this year's Tour de France. Is the evidence that much waterproof, have the found bags of blood already been tested against their own? And why again does the press focus on the 58 riders only? Sure, the Tour is about the start, but surely there will be some high profile footballers involved as well! And what about the ones playing at the World Cup right now, in the end only 1 name out of 4 was a cyclist. But let's continue cycle-bashing. With some of the overall contenders already out of the way, a quick look at the current state of overall contenders clearly favours Valverde on the one hand and Discovery Channel on the other (provided they will not be linked to something else by an insider):
**** Popovych, Savoldelli, Valverde, Landis *** Vinokourov (although he might be the victim of his team's actions), Leipheimer, Cunego, Azevedo, Klöden ** Menchov (although he has been named by some sources as a Fuentes client as well), Karpets, Mayo, Simoni * Pereiro, Sastre, Hincapie, Casar, Garzelli, Garate, Rasmussen, Rogers, Kachechkin
The problem is that given their background (the teams they have been part of in the past, the fact that they are Spanish or have been riding in Spain before, one should keep a light reserves for the likes of Sastre (rode with Saiz before), Azevedo (ditto), Menchov, Karpets, Pereiro and certainly the Euskaltel bunch.
Given the fact that Spanish cycling needs a cleaner image and someone who they can put their hopes onto. One would think of Valverde in the first place, but don't underestimate the possibilities of Marchante and Luis Leon Sanchez Gil, the latter a member of Astana, true, but until now, not an implicated one.
The lowdown on the countdown - let the paranoia take over
As mentioned before, the Fuentes case will prove to be vital for the further development of the Tour. Should Astana be forced to withdraw, who is next? An overview.
AG2R Of Festina fame, Christophe Moreau maybe shouldn't have been hinting during the Dauphiné at the fact that French riders finish more closely overall because of the Fuentes case. In the end, he might very well have been the only one of the Festina 98 Tour team not to have tested positive on EPO, there were traces of amfetamines. José Luis Arrieta Lujambio was one of the many riders named in that other major scandal - the 2001 Giro - where he (then a member of iBanesto) was linked to doping fraud by using caffeine, but never got convicted or suspended.
Bouygues Telecom Of a similar Moreau-fate is Laurent Brochard, world champion of 97 and member of the Festina 98 Tour team, as is Didier Rous. The team has had the Unai Yus case and before they were Bouygues, Bernaudeau led the Brioches team (and Bonjour before that), where a certain Joseba Beloki was riding. A pretty far-fetched link with Saiz, but still. Even before Brioches times, Bernaudeau led the Bonjour team where a Christophe Bassons also was riding, allegedly the only non-doped rider of the Festina team. In his stories Bassons does not reserve a high esteem for Rous or Bernaudeau. The former called him a connard for not joining what was common, the latter tried to persuade Bassons' personal trainer to get some enhancing in the training. Gossip, stories and politics, for sure.
Caisse d'Epargne Aha, a Spanish team. Is VALV the codename for Alejandro Valverde and if so, to what extent was he involved? Florent Brard has been suspended before (and fired by Credit Agricole) as he tested positive for cortisone. However, it turned out his doctor forgot to include the use of some cortisone in his medical records. Which doesn't change the fact that he was on cortisone anyway! (Or like Voet, Bassons and some others testify: why need 100 to 300 drugs for a team of nine riders and why all the prescriptions and extensive medical records?). Oscar Pereiro and Vladimir Karpets are believed to be involved in the Fuentes case, but for the time being no confirmation whatsoever.
Cofidis Definitely one of the teams with the worst reputation (Mattan, Millar, Vandenbroucke, Casagrande...), Cofidis seems set for a clean sheet this year, or are they?
Credit Agricole A small note here as well: Patrice Halgand was a Festina rider in 98, but still in 99. Allegedly, he would be a clean rider in that team as well.
CSC Aha, big time. For starters, Bjarne Riis - of Gewiss reputation - remains mister sixty percent (allegedly 64!) and has had in his team people like Bo Hamburger before. Giovanni Lombardi - like José Luis Arrieta was down for possible suspension for caffeine at the 2001 Giro. Carlos Sastre has started his career with Manolo Saiz. With Julich, Zabriskie and Vandevelde there might be links with Armstrong and US Postal, but they are team links only.
Davitamon Well, they did have this machine to artificially simulate high altitude training not? And was a former team doctor not arrested recently? And did Christophe Brandt not get suspended for methadon (the use of which he always denied) during the 04 Tour (even though he qot acquitted later on)? Isn't Horner an American prefering Spain as his European base? All very smokey, or hardly actually.
Despite the purpose of this small blog really being a focus on the 06 Classics, the 06 Tour cannot go unnoticed.
With the team lists close to conclusion, here's the lowdown on this year's final Tour countdown.
***** Fuentes: the Spanish doctor is not the only culprit involved, but the case around him will be defining the Tour outcome. Either some riders will no longer perform on the level they used to in the recent past, either some riders might be lifted from their bikes (the finish in Spanish Pla Beret?) and taken to the police station.
**** With a slight preference because of the experience and the strong team, Jan Ullrich is the ultimate favorite. He has a strong and well-balanced team and everybody knows it is now or never again. That pressure might be hard should he struggle uphill, but there is always the 100+km of time trialling, especially the last one, which he should dominate. Surely, Ivan Basso should be tired over his Giro win, but in the end is one of the few contenders to actually being able to hurt Ullrich uphill. The pain will be easily reverted in time trials though, not Ivan's best ability.
*** Alejandro Valverde is the man to watch, will he be the ultimate surprise winner. If one man is able to do this, he is. But to what extent would he or his teammates be involved with the Fuentes case. Imagine a Caisse d'Epargne without people like Pereiro and Karpets (blind guessing btw). Floyd Landis was the main third man until his awful Dauphine and was his bad performance a hidden consequence of the Fuentes case or not. Should he be progressing according to plan, the same plan that helped him take the Tour of California, Georgia and Paris-Nice, he should be considered as a the strongest candidate for the podium. Should... Probably short-winged by his time trialling, Francisco Mancebo will end up fourth again. To name at least one of the Discovery boys in the 3* section, Yaroslav Popovych seems set to be the possible bet.
** But Savoldelli and even Azevedo could easily deserve a place here. Personally, I would rank Hincapie slightly under these two. However, with such an abondance of strong riders, Discovery can simply make the Tour peloton explode. Who is going to chase Hincapie when he attacks in the mountains? And imagine Popovych just sticks to whomever is best uphill of Ullrich and Basso and Azevedo and Savoldelli join a counterattack? Cadel Evans probably will be happy with an eight place again, although he might come close to fifth or sixth should he be able to win a stage and repeat his Tour de Suisse time trialling. Surely an uncertain factor by all means is Alexander Vinokourov. Probably in his last attempt to have a go at the overall, his past Tour cv shows how moments of unbeatable brilliance were followed by grey weaker ones. Possibly the best ally for Discovery guerilla tactics, he too, like Landis, was putting down a bad result in the Dauphine right after the Fuentes outbreak. How big will the involvement be? Vino comes from a completely different background compared with many Spanish riders, but in the end it was Saiz who got caught with the 60.000 euros and how many of his team will be left over after the Spanish judicial system has made the names of those involved official? Will he even be able to participate still with the team or will he be joining another team last minute? The extrasportive troubles and uncertainty will prove to be a burden and a pressure, but didn't an American use to thrive on negative impulses to take seven Tour victories in a row? Iban Mayo will be a strong man in the Pyrenees and possible on the Alpe as well, but his time trailling will fail him ending higher than say sixth or seventh. As well, should Rabobank and/or CSC feel like opening the pack against the wind in Normandy and Brittany, he is likely to be an easy victim. Denis Menchov is a good time triallist and he could stick with the first bunch uphill and pretty much like his former team mate Levi Leipheimer end up high overall, close to the fifth stake. Of all the Giro contenders except Basso (Savoldelli wasn't a contender in the end), Cunego is likely to be end the highest. He's got everything to learn, but he also has nothing to loose.
* Christophe Moreau, Andreas Kloden, Egoi Martinez, Alberto Contador, Luis Leon Sanchez Gil, Garzelli, Rasmussen, Rujano, Pena, Rogers, Simoni, Karpets, Pereiro, Sastre, Schleck, Casar, Totschnig, Beloki, Di Luca, Iglinskij, Garate, Marchante
The green jersey final overall will be 1. Hushovd 2. Boonen 3. McEwen 4. Freire 5. Zabel 6. Ballan 7. Bennati
So, Santiago Botero and Giro runner up Gutierrez are currently on hold because of their involvement with Dr Fuentes. Communidad Valenciana will not take the Tour wild card that Unibet.com is now eagerly chasing and main sponsors of ProTour teams drop out and log on as if it were an afternoon neighborhood charity event.
The Tour countdown will of course be dominated by the events happening in Spain and anything related to it (just how far are the links to for instance CSC, T-Mobile and Phonak) and if there are links, how long will it take for the judicial apparatus to actually respond to the matter? Imagine rider X of team Y participating in the Tour, but after the Tour his team will be involved too much in the Fuentes case, what will UCI and ASO do? Get all the team's riders out of the final overall? Have another Tour without them (that might be the best thing for Ullrich though)?
Some people get very hot about all this and they might have a point, but on the other hand, the hypocrysy cuts both ways. Big Tours take more and more stress, not to mention the ludicrous amount of mountain stages in the Giro (or just think about any Angliru-like exploit) and the incredible high amount of pressure within teams to perform (according to the Golden League rules, in casu the ProTour).
Let's take the paranoia one step further and make the 06 Tour a 98 one, when teams dropped out, fled in the night, stayed outside French territory. CSC withdraws, Phonak withdraws, all the Spanish teams withdraw, some other Spanish and American riders (the Girona link? Armstrong was not the only one to train there) withdraw, T-Mobile does as well. Any other rider who has ever been involved with Kelme or Saiz or hardcore Spanish omerta-like cycling withdraws.
My bet? Christophe Moreau wins the Tour and the French go nuts. Argh, yes, Festina. Right: Philippe Gilbert wins the Tour and both the Belgians and the French (a French team) go nuts.
