In the run up to the Doyenne, let's briefly look at the recent of past of this race, say the last 7 year, no biblical references intended. Four riders have nearly always been close in the streets of Ans: Vinokourov (1-3-61-10-30-7) Boogerd (3-2-3-13-5-17-2) Bettini (4-22-1-15-1-5) Rebellin (11-1-13-9-2-3-14) And they will all be present again on Sunday, although Bettini has a light preference over the others. Have a look at http://www.cycling4all.com/index.php?content=a_cen04a.php, a ranking of all riders of all time on the basis of points depending on the weight of the races the performed well in at that time. Except for Vino (the ranking doesn't include 05 and 06) all four of them are amongst the 100 best riders ever (Bettini and Rebellin would now be close to the top 50!)
Other strong performances by riders most likely on the starting list of the 06 LBL in the past came from (top twenty only) : David Etxebarria (6-12-19-3-2) Celestino (8-4) Kessler (12-6-18-6) Vicioso (10-10) Samuel Sanchez (4-6) Erik Dekker (5-8) Scarponi (7-4) Basso (18-8-10-3) Mazzoleni (13-9-20) Garzelli (2-20) M. Zberg (9-7) B. Zberg (10-14) Den Bakker (8-3) Pereiro (20-12) Aerts (18-16-11) Merckx (16-5) and anyone remember Frank Vandenbroucke (16-11-1)?
Most noted absentees are Ullrich, Julich, Savoldelli and Cunego.
Finally, we're getting somewhere else this cycling season. No disrespect for Boonen and all, but I guess it is about time for the cobblestone classic riders to go and lay low for a while, have rest and for the Ardennes specialist and stage racers to take the stage. The Amstel , the perfect in-between, will miss out on two possible winners: Boonen, who will be lying on a beach somewhere (instead of getting some experience on the winding roads of Limburg) and Van Petegem, down and out with a broken collar bone. Ivan Basso is not there yet either (nor is Jan Ullrich, Alexander Vinokourov or Floyd Landis for that matter), but still: new faces will appear.
Last year's winner Liquigas Danilo Di Luca isn't present either (it is a rather winnerless event this year), although he has Luca Paolini and Stefano Garzelli to back up for him. Interesting as well to see how Albasini and Nibali will perform. According to cycling4all.com's starting list, Davide Rebellin (the winner in 03) isn't sure to start either, which would be a pity as he was performed well in the Tour de Basque. His Gerolsteiner team might lack the leader then, but has plenty of powerful legs to end up with a good result, not in the least with Fabian Wegmann. The Zberg brothers usually perform well in and around Maastricht as well. Their competing Germans from T-Mobile has maybe the most dangerous team. Sergei Ivanov already has finished on the podium before and enjoyed a powerful moment of supreme training in the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, Kim Kirchen hasn't been that strong yet, but he will try and do at least as good as last year (eleventh, but second in the subsequent Flèche Wallonne), Matthias Kessler has a love affair with the Amstel and Patrick Sinkewitz is going strong these days.
A team that has trouble in getting their eight riders together is Davitamon, Mario Aerts, Josep Jufre, Christophe Brandt and Bjorn Leukemans (7th last year), expect one of them to be there in the top ten, but who? Their Belgian counterpart Quickstep seems to have the major candidate for the race, Paolo Bettini, even though he might still need this race to be at his best next Sunday. Filippo Pozzato seems a bit tired, but for some reason that is exactly what Serge Baguet has proven not to be in the Amstel on several occasions. Cedric Vasseur is riding well, but will he start?
CSC puts its bets on Karsten Kroon and Frank Schleck, definitely a better bet than the French of AG2R or Credit Agricole. Bouygues' Didier Rous finished the Basque Tour pretty high up so he can be expected in the races ahead, as are Jerome Pineau and Thomas Voeckler. CofidisLeonardo Bertagnolli on a high level for a while now, so will he crack or deliver? And how are Philippe Gilbert and his Lövkvist and McGee team mates doing?
The races ahead will definitely see more Spanish riders finish close. For starters of course Caisse d'Epargne with Alejandro Valverde and Constantino Zaballa. Euskaltel with Samuel Sanchez, Saunier Duval with José Marchante and the powerful Liberty Seguros with AndreyKachechkin, David Etxebarria and Alberto Contador. It might very well be a Swiss team, but Miguel-Angel Perdiguero is as ready as he can be, supported by Rast, Elmiger and Merckx.
Further teams, like Milram (seeing how Iglinskiy responds to a classic), Lampre (Alessandro Ballan should be worn out by now, or will he prove Boonen's absence from the Amstel wrong, they also have Matteo Carrara and Ruggero Marzoli), Discovery (Azevedo, Devolder, Gusev), Chocolade Jaques (Willems?), Landbouwkrediet (prime time for De Waele and Sijmens), Skil-Shimano (Langeveld) and Unibet (Coenen, Serpellini, Dominguez, Quesada, Ten Dam) are clearly not the strongest teams of the line up, but the will have one rider finished fairly close, I hope.
A wild card was given to Barloworld (anyone for the nationality of this team?) and although everybody thinks about Igor Astarloa only, they might be the surprise of the day as Efimkin, Cox, Sabido, Kannemeyer and Cheula should be able to last long). Will the 06 Amstel be the final return on the big stage of the former world champion?
Finally, the absolute star of the day: the Rabobank team. Pity Marc Wauters hasn't made it to the team as it would then have two great riders in an emotional final line up: him and Erik Dekker. Probably about his last chance to really end close. Should he win, will he retire then as well? Also a strong candidate (he is, always!) is Michael Boogerd, will he repeat his win or his podium places? And what about Thomas Dekker already a team leader in the Tirenno-Adriatico, Pieter Weening and Joost Posthuma, Juan-Antonio Flecha and Oscar Freire? What a team, can they actually loose?
A lot of teams still have to find consolation for missing out on the past classics and semi-classics. The Scheldeprijs however, is such a strange race, that in the end about half of the peloton starting at Antwerp's Grote Markt have some chance of winning it (remember Brasi/Roes for instance). The bets are on the teams who lost out on Sunday's Roubaix troubles: Discovery, but especially Lotto. Or if the wind will be as strong as today, another one from Rabobank? A big problem though is that even the ogranisation's website doesn't have an up-to-date starting list. Some wild guesses then:
***** Boonen **** McEwen, Van Petegem, Roesems, Hoste, Cooke, Hunt, Eeckhout *** Gasparotto, Zabel?, Gusev, Flecha, Serpellini, Van Mechelen, Ciolek, Fischer, Vierhouten, Abakoumov ** De Jongh, Cadamuro, Wauters, Van Loocke, Baldato, Petito, Langeveld * Van Impe, De Maar, Veneberg, Nazon, Vandenbroucke
Great! A great winner of a great race disgraced partially by riders who don't follow the rules, but even more so by the UCI who doesn't know what to do. I remember the Tour of Benelux last year, the Eneco, disgraced because three riders were held up by policemen and UCI officials. This time, whatever the mistake of the organisation, whatever the mistake of the riders, the last thing UCI had to do was to disqualify Hoste, Gusev and Van Petegem. If so, they should also have ousted Boonen, Ballan and Flecha who didn't stop either and so on. Moreover, they should have left things as they were and maybe issue a formal complaint themselves (against the riders and their lack of responsibility, although I wouldn't know how to react myself after 250kms of cobblestones and dust, but also against the organisation). Isn't Paris-Roubaix not als being organized by ASO? Was Jean-Marie Leblanc's fire to the isse maybe not the trigger for the UCI officials to decide against the spirit of the rules? I have seen a lot of silly things in my life and I felt lucky I was following the classic on the radio while on the bike myself, so I wouldn't feel disappointed while sitting behind the telly. This was like having seen a movie, liking it, but then the producer comes out from behind the curtains and tells you has issued another ending to the movie. Absolutely a disgrace, a shame on the UCI! I sure hope either Gusev, Hoste or Van Petegem win the Scheldeprijs, to start with. As well, how sad for Hincapie. Miracles don't happen and it will all be very tight to get him up and running for the Tour now. I hope he wins the Vuelta then Anyway, the fun is over, now on with the serious work. Boonen has decided not to participate in the Amstel Gold Race and I can imagine he is tired and aching for proper rest, but wouldn't one classic more not help him win that classic in a very near future? Now the stage racers get their first bit of the one day racing as well, stars such as Basso, Samuel Sanchez and Contador. Rebellin, Di Luca and Bettini don't seem that overpowering strong yet, so who knows. It would be great for cycling to have Basso on the podium in Liège and subsquently win Giro and/or Tour. Who's there to stop him from doing so anyway?
Paris - Roubaix, the 'hell of the North' another Boonen heaven?
What else would you want to achieve as a classics rider than to arrive at the Roubaix velodrome in the jersey of World Champion? You can bet on it that Tom Boonen and his teammates will have a go at another three riders at the podium (which team manager Lefevre has done before!). He might have left the battles in Ghent-Wevelgem for what they were, but he might be right. It were the others now to fight their wars and win one.
AG2R seems a fairly weak team and will have to count on the échapée du jour (Vaitkus for instance) and a place between 20 and 30 for Pütsep and maybe for Dion. Bouygues Telecom doesn't seem to be that strong either but a Martias or Flickinger can only get more dangerous when a small group is not taken back. In the end Antony Geslin might have a fast finish anyway. Cofidis has to count on a strong Thierry Marichal, Staf Scheirlinckx and fast Jimmy Casper for a bit publicity in their own back yard. One of the two major French teams is Credit Agricole which holds Thor Hushovd, 9th last year and recent winner of Wevelgem, along with veteran Kirsipuu. As well, they will be motivated to achieve a victory for their team mate Saul Raisin who is in pretty bad shape in the hospital. La Française des Jeux might not have the same outspoken candidate, but both they have Frédéric Guesdon, winner back in 97 and still going strong, backed up by Mengin, Mourey and especially by Bernhard Eisel, 7th in Wevelgem and ready for a big leap forwards on the cobblestones of Northern France. Agritubel hardly has any other ambition than making the television broadcast.
One wonders what the hell the Spanish teams are doing here, but mind you Caisse d'Epargne has Portal and Acosta for the escapees, Reynes for a sprint and Florent Brard for a possible new top ten stunt (he finished eighth last year). Nevertheless, they would have more people at the velodrome that Euskaltel I reckon. Or Liberty (beyond Koen De Kort) for that matter. Or Saunier Duval (Ventoso and Pagliarini?).
CSC brings jokerman Fabian Cancellara, 6th and 4th in the last two Roubaix editions and a striking sixth in Wevelgem too along with Lars Michaelsen (twice 5th), Arvesen, Johensen and Ljunqvist. Quite a team! Their counterpart in heavyweight, Discovery Channel, hasn't yet issued a full team yet (source: cycling4all.com Fri 07 01:00), but nevertheless, George Hincapie is oh so ready to take on his half a dozen of top ten places and finally win this classic! But he has to convince Leif Hoste, another candidate to communicate properly. Devolder and Gusev (and Ekimov?) won't be that strong, but still, many teams would like to trade. The third big 'block', Phonak, is being tested again within its own ranks as another doping case is happening. Nevertheless, Elmiger, Hunter, Rast and Murn should be able to rank somewhere close to place 20...
Another big player is Rabobank, with possibly not even a full team, but they bring Juan Antonio Flecha and he is ready for it (3rd and 13th in the last two editions and going strong). I guess a lot of Belgians would love to see a miracle happen and Marc Wauters win, but I guess dreams hardly come true. Nevertheless, it could be his last hour.
The German teams are on the verge of a takeover. Whatever Wesemann, Ivanov and Klier will achieve, chances are high they will be outsmarted by at least one of their own team mates such as Bernucci, Burghardt, Greipel and Schmitz, but especially by Gerolsteiner people like David Kopp (2nd in Wevelgem but new to Roubaix), Lang, Wrolich and especially Frank Hoj, always better in the North of France.
The Italians might think of themselves as too neat for the cobblestones but it would be interesting to see how Lampre's Alessandro Ballan and Enrico Franzoi have fun on the 52sth km of cobblestones. There might be a surprise. Liquigas has to count on veteran Zanini or talent Albasini and seems not a big player. Milram might very well pull everything they got to bring Zabel in the best possible position and it would be great if he could pull it off, but there are strong doubts he can do better than his 2000 3rd place.
The Belgian press continues to bring the clash between Davitamon and Quickstep, but even though Peter Van Petegem might very well have his last finest hour, backed up by a strong Bert Roesems, a raging Nico Mattan and surprising Leon Van Bon, it simply doesn't sound the same as Tom Boonen-Filippo Pozzato being helped by former winner Servais Knaven and strong riders like Van Impe, De Jongh, Hulsmans (15th last year), Cretskens and Nuyens.
In the wild cards one finds a Pieri-less LPR (maybe a break for Khalilov?), Landbouwkrediet (Meirhaeghe, but he has been ill), Skiil-Shimano (Vierhouten, but he never finished close in Roubaix) and Unibet.com (Cooke, Serpellini, Thijs and jokerman Jeremy Hunt, but will they survive beyond the 200km limit?).
***** Boonen
**** Van Petegem, Hincapie, Hoste, Flecha, Cancellara, Hushovd
*** Pozzato, Zabel, Eisel, Guesdon, Brard, Kopp, Van Bon, Franzoi
The weather should be dry, so there might not be a terrible accident when coming down from the Kemmelberg. And besides that, Gent-W is a difficult classic to read. Many top sprinters have made it (Cipo in 02 for instance) but also small groups (Hincapie in 01) and even the odd near solo (Mattan, last year). Absent from a team that wasn't exactly the best, Nico Mattan might very well have been training hard in the last couple of days to prove that last year's debacle was less than a helping hand. As well, Hincapie (one win and three top five finishes in Wevelgem already)will be very tight on a victory already now, not even awaiting Roubaix, as he clearly wasn't very happy with the Tour of Flanders result. Others to watch out for are the former Fassa twin Flecha and Cancellara.
Absolutely true, Tom Boonen is a major star. Yet, the way many people get carried away over him often borderlines a major shame as well. Boonen simply couldn't get rid of Hoste, so was he any better besides faster? What was the Merckxian character of it all? I remember Verbeeck confessing to the press that Merckx was an alien who rode 5 km/h too fast and this after having suffered many deaths in Eddy's wheel. But not this time, in their breakaway Hoste and Boonen were well-matched, until the final meters. Pity that Hoste hadn't studied the Ronde back catalogue, he might have pulled away at the place where Tafi did a couple of years ago. Having said that, Boonen is a superstar and I'm glad that he joined Hoste in some fooling the commentators afterwards.
How far can a dominant world champion, the Armstrong of the classics, go? Lance had its (generally perceived) lesser moment when chasing down Simeoni (even though Hinault has done similar actions without being crucified for it), but what Tom Boonen did yesterday by trying to convince Bert Scheirlinckx (of the world famous major team called Jartazi...) to stop chasing the breakaway (or trying to keep the difference to a minimum, which he managed to get done in the end) was definitely another side of the (generally hailed) personality of the world champion. Surely, there is no harm in Bert doing this Tom? And if so, why not prevent it yourself then?
It said this morning in one of the Flemish sportspapers: Boonen is the enemy number one, especially of the smaller teams. Mind you, smaller teams have their reason of existence as well, and all too often they have a former top cyclist in their team (like Astarloa or Pieri), or even have someone who could either be the échappée du jour or a good ride altogether (the aforementioned Bert, but also Aart Vierhouten, about every member of the Chocolade Jaques team and Tenax' Fabio Baldato and Roberto Petito, the two of them finished inside the Flanders top ten no less than five times). And has no one other than Peter Van Petegem had to undergo a year in a smaller team before he grow to become what he now is?
Anyway, some more considerations. First of all, a hurray for the organizers of the Driedaagse De Panne who have found a great route for their first stage, coming close to a semi-classic in its own right. As well, it was nice to see Spanish riders be so active on the cobblestones and bergskes, especially Luis Leon Sanchez. Pity that he isn't mentioned in any of the provisional starting lists for the Ronde van Vlaanderen. And of course, a final fact is that Discovery Channel is still going to be a factor to be reckoned with. Hoste, Hincapie, Devolder and Gusev are all ready to take on Boonen. They are very well not as strong as boom boom Boonen, but surely Quickstep cannot chase every single breakaway?
Current rating: *****Boonen ****Van Petegem, Ballan ***Dekker, Pozzato, Flecha **Bettini, Nuyens, Hoste, Klier, Hincapie, Petito, S. Ivanov, Gusev, Eisel, Johansen, Ljunqvist, Kopp, B. De Waele
Although, personally, I would favour a win by any of these five: Ballan, Flecha, Gusev, De Waele or Cancellara (and it would be good for cycling as well).
So Tom Boonen has taken away a larger part of the pressure by taking a third E3 Prijs in a row and Oscar Freire is back. Those are clearly the most important conclusions of this weekend. Another one would be that starting lists that are available online should not be trusted. Erik Dekker turned up in France instead of at the E3 and there are more where that came from.
Ivan Basso seems to gearing up for a major year, already near dominating a two day stage race, a fact which is very comforting for the rider himself, but it should be very alarming for that other Tour de France contender, the mph kilo of German talent: Jan Ullrich. Even Alexander Vinokourov is on schedule, taking the final overall in the Castilla y Leon, where he and his LSW team mates clearly outsmarted Discovery Channel, not in the least Yaroslav Popovych.
Having said that, taking this weekend's results in, a first Ronde van Vlaanderen forecast (with hardly one third of the teams already known).
***** Boonen
**** E. Dekker, Bettini, Ballan, Zabel, Pozzato, Paolini
*** Gilbert, Van Petegem, Zaballa, Klier, Freire, Flecha, Cancellara, Devolder, Van Bon, Steegmans, S. Scheirlinckx, Hushovd
** Kroon, Nuyens, Arvesen, S. Ivanov, Petacchi, M. Zberg, Hincapie, Verbrugghe, Kopp, Ljunqvist
* De Waele, Backstedt, McEwen, Wesemann, Burghardt, Hammond
Quite a pity the following people aren't in for the Flanders classic: Astarloa, Basso...
The E3 Prijs Vlaandere has been won by boom boom Boonen in the past two years and of all the (semi) classics in the run to the real thing on Sunday 2 April, the E3 is the most important. Boonen is the overall favorite - again, although this might prove to be exactly what Gert Steegmans can achieve right now. Stefen Wesemann seems not in the right condition yet, but he must have finished about a dozen of times in the top ten. Besides them, about half of the peloton could receive a star rating. The real bets are on the bold ones.
There are 12 typical kaskes to be climbed (a total of about 15km only) and some longer cobble stone sections. The following is a brief status of the star rating of the candidates (mind you, people like Freire could easily receive a five star, but they aim at a close result on the next day, for the Brabantse Pijl):
* Rous, Casper, Marichal, Bodrogi, Mengin, Hoj, Lang, Wrolich, Napolitano, Franzoi, Backstedt, Zanini, Den Bakker, Van Loocke, Muravyev
The Brabantse Pijl has always been a strange race: it contains classic riders for both cobblestones classics and Ardennes classics, there a fsat finishers, sprinters even, and besides the new can of talent, some stage racers are present as well. Nevertheless, the Brabantse Pijl is much easier for rating riders.
***** Freire, Paolini, Ballan **** Kroon, Baguet *** Ljunqvist, Leukemans, Nuyens, Sijmens, F. Willems, Abakoumov ** De Maar, Flecha, Kopp, Monfort, Verheyen, Den Bakker, Serpellini, Coenen, Petito * M. Zberg, Vansummeren, Van Huffel, Rous, Vaitkus, Maccanti, Kleynen
Cobblestones and bergskes - Tour of Flanders tension 1
So right, a nice swoop by Quickstep at Milan-Sanremo, but still a lot of people being left disappointed as a world champion might very well be having team mates take a major classic win, but throwing your hands in the air to take away the attention for being beaten on the finish line is not exactly the 'cannibal' feeling. Maybe Tom Boonen can prove differently in the ten days ahead, but he has definitely some pr to do by answering with his pedals.
Quickstep should be safe anyway for the next few weeks, with Boonen, Bettini, Pozzato and Nuyens, what else can happen but the one victory over the other? The competition might be fierce over the roads winding over cobblestones sections and over the many steep slopes, but still, who would take up the gauntlet in the weeks to come?
Davitamon-Lotto might have an odd nice result by Robbie McEwen, but it looks like Peter Van Petegem is to display not only good form but has to come home with some very good results or he'll be ending his career at Jartazi. Who knows whether Leon Van Bon might be the penultimate jokerman. Gert Steegmans clearly isn't ready for a major role in the team, but he might settle for anything like Dwars Door Vlaanderen or De E3 Prijs. That is, as long as Boonen lets him (at both Het Volk en Kuurne, Boonen sat on his wheel too often). But all in all, there will hardly be a classic victory by a DVL shirt.
Two young Belgians deserve more attention than good old Pete: Stijn Devolder and Philip Gilbert. For sure, they will be the Belgian riders being talked about. Luca Paolini is also ready to start reeling in the close finishes, as is Oscar Freire. Erik Zabel was really strong in Flanders last year and he might be more than just an aid to Alessandro Petacchi in the races ahead. And just how much has George Hincapie being focused on the Tour de France, we'll know soon. Kim Kirchen will be ready to step up his results, although that is more likely to be based in the Ardennes and the Gold Race. Can Sergei Ivanov still play a role, or Erik Dekker? And just how far can Alessandro Ballan jump in progress of one year?
Will he do it or not? That seems to be the most important question: will Tom Boonen win Milan-SanRemo? If tradition has it, he won't! In the past fifteen years hardly anyone who won the Primavera had ridden Paris-Nice before and Alessandro Petacchi may very well have chosen the correct preparation once more, being the Tirreno-Adriatico.
Paolo Bettini seemed to be a major candidate upto a week ago, but his injury might have taken away his edge on the others. Despite still being a favorite, he might now well share that role with Quickstep's jokerman Filippo Pozzato. Nick Nuyens seems out of the picture for this race. With Petacchi and Erik Zabel Milram has five of the nine most recent Sanremo victories and should it turn out to be a sprint, Petacchi is named as the favorite winner by many.
In the Boonen-Petacchi battle, maybe the real one who will benefit from being out of the spotlight might be the very winner indeed: Philippe Gilbert. Like with Het Volk, we easily claim that he who beats Gilbert, will win this classic. And if he doesn't do it, FDJ can still settle for a top ten with Bernhard Eisel. Very similar to Gilbert, is Lampre's shadow main man Alessandro Ballan, ready for his first big shot (the leader Cunego looks not ready for the job tomorrow).
Another favorite is last year's third and green jersey Thor Hushovd. He has a whole team to his service, except for the English speaking riders Renshaw and Raisin, both still very young, but most likely part of an early attack. Supposedly very fast as well, Robbie McEwen might find out that aiming for the finish line at the Via Roma is simply beyond his powers. Mario Aerts and Leon Van Bon are the usual jokermen.
Alejandro Valverde has not among the many favorites for the race, but he should be very well taken into consideration. As is his teammate Constantino Zaballa. Isaac Galvez and Vicente Reynes are good finishers as well, but will they survive after nearly 300km.
No one mentions Discovery Channel and it has its reasons. Probably like McEwen, Hammond will find that this classic is simply not his cup. Max Van Heeswijk has proven he can finish close, but he has been nowhere so far. Hence, Discovery might be the major power for attacks and small groups, particularly with Leif Hoste and Vladimir Gusev. Similarly, Euskaltel's Samuel Sanchez is riding very well, but he should be in a group or otherwise aim for a top ten only.
Two of the strongest teams throughout are Gerolsteiner and CSC. Both teams don't have an outspoken candidate-winner, but the average quality assembled in front of the Duomo simply outsmarts any other. Heinrich Haussler is the new kid on the block and has nothing to loose by any attempt this year already (although he might settle for Gilbert's last year sixth place), David Kopp and Stefan Schumacher can both digest the Poggio and still be very fast at the finish. Davide Rebellin has never been close in this race and like Fabian Wegmann he might never be, but both are definitely forces to be reckoned with. On top of that there is Markus Zberg, probably the most consistent SanRemo rider of the whole peloton. At least a top ten for him, if not much more. I'd put him down as third.
CSC sends in fast guy Kurt-Asle Arvesen (watch him on Saturday!), Karsten Kroon, Fabian Cancellara and Frank Schleck, basically all of them being four star riders for the Primavera. Rabobank should be there with GST and CSC, but Boogerd having broken a foot, the team has lost some considerably force. On the other hand, this is the moment for Thomas Dekker, not as a possible winner, but as a team leading force, to bring Erik Dekker, Juan-Antonio Flecha and most especially Oscar Freire home.
Also strong on more than one front is Liquigas, Zanini can always try and lead Backstedt to a close finish (should gigantic Magnus still be there anyway), but talent Vincenzo Nibali, Stefan Garzelli and Luca Paolini are good finishers as well and in pretty good shape. The closest LQG call will come from Franco Pellizotti however.
Strangely enough, no one talks about Phonak. The top team has won the most important stage races so far with Landis, but seems to be so overtly relaxed that no one might want to chase any of them or would not expect Miguel-Angel Perdiguero or Fabrizio Guidi at the finish. Also hardly talked about is Cofidis' Leonardo Bertagnolli, one of the best riders of the season so far (his team mates Sylvain Chavanel and Cristian Moreni won't be that good). Similarly, T-Mobile goes with the flow, Sergei Ivanov finishing close a couple of times in the past, Linus Gerdemann and Marcus Burghardt being the new stars, but especially Andreas Klier and Lorenzo Bernucci are ready for a close finish. Andrey Kachechkin has won a stage in Paris-Nice, but no one has noticed that the way he did was the most realistic test of doing exactly the same before or on the Poggio, very Alexandre Vinokourov-like, leaving fast Allan Davis his chances in a bunch sprint.
Surprises can be expected by people from Acqua e Sapone (Rinaldo Nocentini and Alexandr Arekeev), Panaria (Sella, Mazzanti, Grillo and Matveyev), LPR (Dario Pieri and Mikhail Khalilov), Barloworld (Igor Astarloa) and Saunier Duval (Ricardo Ricco)
Smaller teams seeking publicity before the Via San Roma are definitely A2R (Vaitkus and Nazon), Bouygues Telecom (Voeckler and how fast is Madrid medal Antony Geslin in Spring?) Naturino (Fischer, Gentili, Gasperoni)
Or will Boonen prove to be a cycling god once more and outdo the Las Vegas gambling, the close fourty names? Or will Belgium enjoy another feud between Flemish and Walloons?
The first real classic, Milan-SanRemo is still more than a week ahead, but already the Primavera fever is rising. Briefly, a status of the candidates, regardless of who will turn up in front of the Duomo, as there is not a starting list available yet:
In tegenstelling tot Parijs-Nice is Tirreno-Adriatico altijd al een goktent met een paar dozijn kanshebbers minder het terrein voor klassementsrenners. Hier komen zelfs rappe mannen met inhoud naar voor. De Tirreno is de laatste vijftien jaar ook de beste voorbereiding gebleken voor Milaan-SanRemo, de eerste grote klassieker.
Er is ook niet meteen iemand die de titel Mr Tirreno-Adriatico zou mogen dragen, al komt Oscar Freire er het dichtst bij in de buurt. Eindwinnaar vorig jaar, drie ritten, en voordien ook al eens tweede en derde. De specialist-wereldkampioen weet zich omringd met Michael Boogerd, altijd tuk op een lekkere Tirreno (3e in 2001 en ritwinnaar dat jaar), soldaat Marc Wauters (7e in 2000), een steeds nadrukkelijker aanwezige Juan-Antonio Flecha en misschien wel hét talent van deze etappewedstrijd: Thomas Dekker.
Een ander toptalent is Vladimir Efimkin, die hier zijn winst in de Ronde van Portugal vorig jaar al meteen mag bevestigen als kopman van de Caisse dEpargne ploeg.
Met Leonardo Bertagnolli en Arnaud Coyot brengt Cofidis misschien wel twee rappe mannen in vorm aan de start, maar of ze genoeg kruit in hun eindsprint zullen hebben voor etappewinst of voor een dichte klassering is zeer de vraag. Een situatie waarin zich ook Davitamon-Lotto bevindt. Peter Van Petegem komt zich hier allicht alleen voorbereiden, al zou ritwinst wel eens goed kunnen zijn voor het moreel der troepen Peter! Met Leon Van Bon weet je natuurlijk nooit en Robbie McEwen kan natuurlijk tegen een stootje en heeft allicht bijtijds zijn zware val van zondag al grotendeels verteerd.
Thor Hushovd is eveneens een snellerd, die met Jaan Kirispuu aan zijn zijde droomt van een klassieke overwinning. Een ritje meepikken om de druk weg te nemen is altijd mooi meegenomen. Bij Credit Agricole ook Laszlo Bodrogi, gepatenteerd hardrijder.
Alessandro Petacchi kloppen zal echter moeilijk zijn. Ale Jet is gebrand op een herhaling van vorig jaar toen hij drie ritten won, tweede eindigde en later die week iedereen klopte op de via Roma. Toch maar afwachten wat het wordt met Ale Jet aan de zijde van Erik Zabel
Discovery Channel zou wel eens hun eersteling van dit jaar kunnen scoren. De Tirreno moet zowel Stijn Devolder als Tom Danielson of Paolo Savoldelli en George Hincapie kunnen liggen. De tijdrit van 20km zal allicht een eerste indicatie geven over de hiërarchie binnen het post-Armstrong Discovery, en gouwe ouwe Viatcheslav Ekimov nog eens in het daglicht zetten.
De meeste tegenstand zullen ze misschien wel hebben met de Italiaanse topploegen. Lampre, de ploeg van Damiano Cunego brengt de rappe Daniele Bennati aan de start, maar het is vooral Alessandro Ballan die momenteel op wolken rijdt. Bij Liquigas heerst Danilo Di Luca (2e in 2003 en 2002) als nooit tevoren, al weet hij buiten Luca Paolini ook eeuwige belofte Franco Pellizotti en Stefano Garzelli gevaarlijke outsiders in vorm naast zich. Quickstep heeft oud-winnaars Paolo Bettini (2004) en Filippo Pozzato (2003) in de rangen.
Ondanks een beresterke vertegenwoordiging in Parijs-Nice, toont CSC zijn sterkte en luxe en verschijnt het aan de start met snelle mannen Stuart OGrady en Kurt-Asle Arvesen, een complexloze Ivan Basso, de ontluikende Lars Ytting Bak en topfavoriet voor de tijdrit én eindzege Fabian Cancellara.
Gerolsteiners Levi Leipheimer, op dreef in Californie, is er nog niet zeker bij. Davide Rebellin is dat wel. De winnaar van 2001 wilt met de pedalen zijn recente vrijspraak in een minieme dopingzaak bevestigen. Allicht geruggesteund door Fabian Wegmann.
En verder lijkt Igor Astarloa na twee kwakkeljaren terug een beetje de oude, hij won afgelopen weekend nog Milaan-Turijn. Kan T-Mobiles Lorenzo Bernucci een lentevervolg breien aan zijn hete herfst van vorig jaar? Herrijst Andreas Klöden in de gedaante van de man die eertijds Parijs-Nice domineerde?
De laatste tien jaar hebben de Belgen nooit veel potten gebroken in de Tirreno-Adriatico. De beste Belg van de laatste jaren was bijna steevast Peter Farazijn. Wie weet denken Serge Baguet of Bjorn Leukemans er dit jaar anders over.
Wie er sowieso andere gedachten op nahoudt is het gouden haantje Philip Gilbert. De kop is er al af met de overwinning in Het Volk, maar Gilbert heeft vooral zijn zinnen gezet op Milaan-SanRemo. Hij kan in de Tirreno rustig Bernhard Eisel als joker uitspelen, ondertussen de kat uit de boom kijken en mits een enkele goede gok alvast met nog minder druk aan de start in Milaan verschijnen ?
This year's Paris-Nice is no less than 1275k and -let's be honest - the first real stage race of the year (a title which further on this year will be taken by the Basque Tour). The route looks slightly different in that the seven stages might very well rank no less than five climbs of the 1st category and eight of 2nd, not a single stage finishes uphill. Nor does the last stage has its traditional Col dEze ending. Despite all the changes, ASO has clearly kept in line with previous editions. Every year, the top 10 consists of stage race contenders, riders for the classics and all-round cyclists pur sang.
One of the likely surprises of the 4,8km prologue will be Tom Boonen. He won two stages last year, both of them in a bunch sprint (wearing the leader jersey for two days as well), but given his new training terrain around Monace and the short and explosive prologue, he can very well finish close.
There is no doubt that CSC is the strongest team this year. Last year winner Bobby Julich will be a strong candidate again and the Danish can always count on a more than good ride of Jens Voigt (already four times top ten), Frank Schleck (7th and 9th in the last two years) and David Zabriskie. It might very well be possible that this PN will be a prolongation of the recent Tour of California (1. Floyd Landis, 2. Zabriskie, 3. Julich).
Discovery Channel leaves their jokerman for the Tour de France George Hincapie home and they hope that their youngsters like Janez Brajkovic or Vladimir Gusev can have an early season overall good performance. Or would one of the real Tour heirs, Alexander Popovych,show he can be a team and race leader?
Other talents to keep an eye on are Thomas Lövkvist, Alberto Contador, Andrei Kachechkin (his boss, Alexander Vinokourov, also mister Paris-Nice, is not present) and Linus Gerdemann. And who knows how far classics specialist like Erik Dekker, but especially Kim Kirchen will get.
Alejandro Valverde does not start, which is a pity as last year's runners up, he could prove his good year in France calls for (so much) more. He leaves the team honour to be defended by Antonio Colom Mas, who recently won the Tour of Valencia, and to Constantino Zaballa, who finished third last year. Other Spanish riders can be expected to some extent as well, as especially Euskaltel riders who have been up and down so mysteriously in the past couple of years, are now back in one of their peak moments.
As they have been dominating the start of the seaon, there are quite some Belgians riders other than Boonen to watch for as well: can Rik Verbrugghe go for the prologue titile and what can Gert Steegmans, Maxim Monfort, Axel Merckx do? And the guy who wants to be more than the first lieutenant of Elvis on the bike Nick Nuyens.
So Tom Boonen looses a sprint against Alessandro Petacchi. Major headlines tomorrow, but in the end no big deal. Should he not win in a sprint tomorrow again, even then, no big deal. He has been training uphil a lot and his 'train' wasn't perfect, but everything will be in place for Milaan-Sanremo, don't you worry.
Another indication for the Classics is the Trofeo Laigueglia, won by another Alessandro, Ballan, Lampre's secret weapon for the classics. Still in the frontline is Nocentini. Caucchioli is clearly riding well too. Close to the front of the finishers are people like Bettini, Figueras and Celestino.
As for the classics themselves. There will be updates on all the teams and a barometer per classic in the month ahead.
The Omloop Het Volk is still more than 12 days away, and already headlines are talking about the Classics more than ever before. The organisers of the Dwars door Vlaanderen (more than a six weeks away!) hope for a clash between Boonen, McEwen and Petacchi. It could indeed end in a clash of the kings of sprint, but as Cycling Weekly has made it clear in their editorial: "Is Boonen unbeatable?". They list as possible adversaries Philippe Gilbert for Het Volk, Alessandro Petacchi for Milaan-Sanremo, Peter Van Petegem for the Tour of Flanders and Fabian Cancellara for Paris-Roubaix.
The latter might want to hope for a lesser anti-Danish feeling in the suburbs of North France cities. Cycling in the end remains a vulnerable public arena and a lot can happen with only a small action of a few (one of the concerns of the organisation of the Tour launch in London next year)
The CW Editorial even goes further in the predictions and lists Boonen as the winner of Milaan-Sanremo, Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. The same issue has also gathered some rumours and CW is quoted to have overheard Johan Bruyneel motivating George Hincapie to lead the team at the Tourv de France. Hello people? No way Hincapie can win the Tour! However, he can become the psychological leader of the team without a firm ambition of getting higher than - say - fifth overall. Nevertheless, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Who will ride after George, when he were to follow a jump by Vinokourov? And meanwhile Popovych and Savoldelli just have to follow CSC and T-Mobile...
The difference with the races so far this year is that the results that will be booked in the second ten days of February will tell much more about what to expect. Erik Zabel continues to show early form. Even though he hasn't been able to win yet, it shows that his move away from the Ullrich clan did not affect his motivation. Erik will be ready for another Milan-Sanremo.
That type of victory in a major classic will never be Robbie McEwen's game, but still he has alreaady won his handful of stages and now even an overall, the GP Costa Azul. Two other names from that race are Enrico Dagano from Barloworld but more importantly Bernhard Eisel.
Eisel is one of the three youngsters of FDJ that might very well be in his break through season. Eisel was the only one to beat Boonen in Qatar. Another FDJ talent, Thomas Lövkvist, finished second at the Mont Faron stage and sixth overall in the Tour Méditerranéen. The third youngster, Philippe Gilbert, finished 12th overall. In the same overall result, Botcharov and Caucchioli might then be the two runners up, they owe it mostly to the team time trial.
The overall winner, Cyril Dessel from A2R, the same team that already took the overall in the Tour Down Under with Simon Gerrans. Have the French teams then indeed been dominated by their antithese Armstrong in that they can only break free now? However, Dessel seems to have run into a lucky moment, virtually his only other result would be his silver medal at the national championship last year.
In the Ruta del Sol the Quesada brothers have run the show of the first stage. Nothing major happened besides that rather encyclopaedic fact. Quesada, who? Indeed, most likely just another Spanish rider who can only win when he's competing in Spain. Ask Quickstep's Lefevre.
The linked stages in Mallorca has seen some real riders take their first score already. Isaac Galvez Lopez might perhaps still rank under the same category of Spanish riders as discussed just now, he did indeed beat the whole pack twice, including people like Elmiger, Haussler, Förster, Bettini, Chicchi, Flecha and Paolini. A list of names that is already quite an interesting read. Sadly enough David Bernabeu won one stage and came in third in another. Bernabeu has been suspended in 2003 for the use of a banned corticoide. Odds are he will not finish first in a cycling competition outside Spain (hell, even his teammate from his then team Milaneza Francisco Perez got a new chance at Ileas Baleares).
So, allow me to put question marks behind the current ethos in the peloton when people like Hamilton get their sentence confirmed (and it only started so many months after the fact, so in effect the suspension is more than two years) and people like Filip Meirhaeghe cannot even join a randonnée for nearly two years, whereas the two Davids, Bruylandts and Millar, are allowed to train with their future team (Unibet and Saunier respectively).
However, back to more positive analysis: the last stage in Mallorca brought to the fore names that are out to confirm last year's results or the promises they hold: David Kopp, Lorenzo Bernucci and Linus Gerdemann are definitely being monitored.
As for the week ahead: clearly the Ruta del Sol is to start for real still, but more importantly: the Trofeo Laigueglia on Tuesday and the Haut-Var on Saturday will bring to the fore some more real and tough names.
Getting started. Slowly recovering from a 7 year upper cut.
Lance Armstrong has left the world of cycling as an active pro rider, nothing new there. However, try to imagine the impact of this guy and his team and teammates after seven Tour de France victories. Everything has changed: preparation has become a solid science, with much less focus on medical advice than mostly French people would beleive. Lance made the sport evolve around motivation, anger, determination, teamwork and above all Big Money. I often give credit to the French riders when they mention a world of cycling at two speeds: true, I cannot imagine one French rider having seen a wind tunnel from the inside... No wonder they get left behind!
Anyway, this blog is not about pro X or contra Y, but it is an infrequently updated analysis of the current cycling season, the year post-Armstrong 0. Only after the end of this season will we know whether or not this was a year 0 (with no particular big name stepping to the throne of the Texan Rider and even with another Discovery Channel Tour victory) or year 1 (with a new boss in cycling). But would any new boss have the same long term impact on cycling ... Time will tell.
So far, this year has seen races in Australia, Langkawi, Mallorca and Qatar. Whatever the importance may be for some people to have early season victory, the first real competition is now getting started: the Tour Meditteranéen for sure is one. The summit of the Mont Faron never lies and brings to the fore riders who will be there for the rest of the year, or at least in the weeks to come. Last year top four: Voigt, Moncoutié, Pellizotti and Schleck. Thomas Lövkvist, second in this year's Faron stage, was sixth last year. Tomorrow, Sunday 12th of February also sees the start of the first confrontations between Boonen and Petacchi at the Ruta del Sol. Boom boom Boonen, also called Elvis on a bike, might very well have won a handful of Qatar races, if they would remain his only victories, no one would remember. However, he looks extremely fit and strong and above all, he looks like having lost more weight than last year. Didn't Cycle Sport of Cycling Weekly mention that he might want to have a try at the Tour de France overall?
So many questions, so many names to keep an eye on, so many stories to tell (hell, Hamilton got his suspension confirmed today, a two year ban, what about that Roberto!).
