So, Landis brought down? Maybe, time will tell. Will it affect the Phonak team in the races ahead, probably. As well, the 'clean' Astana riders are now allowed to race again. Let's wait and see how deeply rooted Vino's anger is (without any competition?)!
The next race being the former World Cup race in Hamburg. From the provisional start list
As we now have had the Fuentes Tour turn into a Landis one, back to business: the classics.
Whether the race in Hamburg is a real classic is not even worth a discussion, but still: it is ProTour, former World Cup, hence rather much a big race.
Time for a short recap of the last years: Last year, the top ten looked like:
Filippo Pozzato
Luca Paolini
Allan Davis
Fabian Cancellara
Davide Rebellin
Martin Elmiger
Salvatore Commesso
Vladimir Gusev
Juan Ant.Flecha
Bert Grabsch
And then already one question comes to mind. What about the Fuentes people. Allan Davis is former Liberty, now Astana, not? And what about Jan Ullrich, fired by his team but in appeal against the decision and usually very strong in and around Hamburg. Pozzato, Paolini, Cancellara, Rebellin, Commesso, Gusev, Flecha and Grabsch are all in good shape and ready for a repeat of last year's performance, if not better.
In 2004, the first ten were:
Stuart O'Grady
Paolo Bettini
Igor Astarloa Askasibar
Oscar Freire Gomez
Gerben Löwik
Davide Rebellin
Erik Zabel
Fabrizio Guidi
Andrej Hauptman
Paolo Bossoni
Astarloa's Barloworld is not allowed to the race, only Skiil-Shimano is. Otherwise, O'Grady, Freire, Zabel and Guidi are to be included in the star ratings as well. How is Bettini doing actually?
In 2003, the first ten were
Paolo Bettini
Davide Rebellin
Jan Ullrich
Igor Astarloa Askasibar
Mirko Celestino
Erik Zabel
Fabio Baldato
Giovanni Lombardi
Stefano Zanini
Andrea Ferrigato
Again, questions about Ullrich, no Astarloa, but surely Celestino might be aded to the list as well. And again as well: how is Bettini doing these days?
Melancholy? Why not, the 2002 race
Johan Museeuw
Igor Astarloa Askasibar
Davide Rebellin
Paolo Bettini
George Hincapie
Fabio Baldato
Cristian Moreni
Andrea Ferrigato
Danilo Di Luca
Romans Vainsteins
brings another three names that are in good shape or in desparate need of a big victory: Moreni on the one hand, Hincapie and Di Luca on the other. Poor Igor, this really is his race...
Right, bring it on, the 2001 race, would Igor be there?
Erik Zabel
Romans Vainsteins
Erik Dekker
Fabrizio Guidi
Andrej Hauptman
Paolo Bettini
Igor Asterloa Askasibar
Fabio Baldato
Werner Riebenbauer
Sven Teutenberg
Oh yes, he is! Incredible, the most consistent rider in a World Cup Classic after Zabel's Milan-SanRemo probably. It would be great to see Zabel win this one actually.
Apparently, the HEW already was run in 00 and 99 as well: 2000 =
Gabriele Missaglia
Francesco Casagrande
Fabio Baldato
Erik Zabel
Thor Hushovd
Gabriele Balducci
Marco Zanotti
Massimiliano Mori
Magnus Backstedt
Romans Vainsteins
1999=
Mirko Celestino
Raphael Schweda
Romans Vainsteins
Johan Museeuw
George Hincapie
Ivan Basso
Erik Dekker
Franco Ballerini
Erik Zabel
Jürgen Werner
You see, I'm always right in the end: Celestino can pull this one off. Who is Basso?
(A brief update: two names added to the star ratings)
More team overviews doping related but as our previous item (with the 5* rated Fuentes as the overall decisive element in the 06 Tour) already mentioned, the current developments already overtake the previous ones.
Is it just for ASO to not allow people like Ullrich, Sevilla, Basso and Mancebo to ride this year's Tour de France. Is the evidence that much waterproof, have the found bags of blood already been tested against their own? And why again does the press focus on the 58 riders only? Sure, the Tour is about the start, but surely there will be some high profile footballers involved as well! And what about the ones playing at the World Cup right now, in the end only 1 name out of 4 was a cyclist. But let's continue cycle-bashing. With some of the overall contenders already out of the way, a quick look at the current state of overall contenders clearly favours Valverde on the one hand and Discovery Channel on the other (provided they will not be linked to something else by an insider):
**** Popovych, Savoldelli, Valverde, Landis *** Vinokourov (although he might be the victim of his team's actions), Leipheimer, Cunego, Azevedo, Klöden ** Menchov (although he has been named by some sources as a Fuentes client as well), Karpets, Mayo, Simoni * Pereiro, Sastre, Hincapie, Casar, Garzelli, Garate, Rasmussen, Rogers, Kachechkin
The problem is that given their background (the teams they have been part of in the past, the fact that they are Spanish or have been riding in Spain before, one should keep a light reserves for the likes of Sastre (rode with Saiz before), Azevedo (ditto), Menchov, Karpets, Pereiro and certainly the Euskaltel bunch.
Given the fact that Spanish cycling needs a cleaner image and someone who they can put their hopes onto. One would think of Valverde in the first place, but don't underestimate the possibilities of Marchante and Luis Leon Sanchez Gil, the latter a member of Astana, true, but until now, not an implicated one.
The lowdown on the countdown - let the paranoia take over
As mentioned before, the Fuentes case will prove to be vital for the further development of the Tour. Should Astana be forced to withdraw, who is next? An overview.
AG2R Of Festina fame, Christophe Moreau maybe shouldn't have been hinting during the Dauphiné at the fact that French riders finish more closely overall because of the Fuentes case. In the end, he might very well have been the only one of the Festina 98 Tour team not to have tested positive on EPO, there were traces of amfetamines. José Luis Arrieta Lujambio was one of the many riders named in that other major scandal - the 2001 Giro - where he (then a member of iBanesto) was linked to doping fraud by using caffeine, but never got convicted or suspended.
Bouygues Telecom Of a similar Moreau-fate is Laurent Brochard, world champion of 97 and member of the Festina 98 Tour team, as is Didier Rous. The team has had the Unai Yus case and before they were Bouygues, Bernaudeau led the Brioches team (and Bonjour before that), where a certain Joseba Beloki was riding. A pretty far-fetched link with Saiz, but still. Even before Brioches times, Bernaudeau led the Bonjour team where a Christophe Bassons also was riding, allegedly the only non-doped rider of the Festina team. In his stories Bassons does not reserve a high esteem for Rous or Bernaudeau. The former called him a connard for not joining what was common, the latter tried to persuade Bassons' personal trainer to get some enhancing in the training. Gossip, stories and politics, for sure.
Caisse d'Epargne Aha, a Spanish team. Is VALV the codename for Alejandro Valverde and if so, to what extent was he involved? Florent Brard has been suspended before (and fired by Credit Agricole) as he tested positive for cortisone. However, it turned out his doctor forgot to include the use of some cortisone in his medical records. Which doesn't change the fact that he was on cortisone anyway! (Or like Voet, Bassons and some others testify: why need 100 to 300 drugs for a team of nine riders and why all the prescriptions and extensive medical records?). Oscar Pereiro and Vladimir Karpets are believed to be involved in the Fuentes case, but for the time being no confirmation whatsoever.
Cofidis Definitely one of the teams with the worst reputation (Mattan, Millar, Vandenbroucke, Casagrande...), Cofidis seems set for a clean sheet this year, or are they?
Credit Agricole A small note here as well: Patrice Halgand was a Festina rider in 98, but still in 99. Allegedly, he would be a clean rider in that team as well.
CSC Aha, big time. For starters, Bjarne Riis - of Gewiss reputation - remains mister sixty percent (allegedly 64!) and has had in his team people like Bo Hamburger before. Giovanni Lombardi - like José Luis Arrieta was down for possible suspension for caffeine at the 2001 Giro. Carlos Sastre has started his career with Manolo Saiz. With Julich, Zabriskie and Vandevelde there might be links with Armstrong and US Postal, but they are team links only.
Davitamon Well, they did have this machine to artificially simulate high altitude training not? And was a former team doctor not arrested recently? And did Christophe Brandt not get suspended for methadon (the use of which he always denied) during the 04 Tour (even though he qot acquitted later on)? Isn't Horner an American prefering Spain as his European base? All very smokey, or hardly actually.
Despite the purpose of this small blog really being a focus on the 06 Classics, the 06 Tour cannot go unnoticed.
With the team lists close to conclusion, here's the lowdown on this year's final Tour countdown.
***** Fuentes: the Spanish doctor is not the only culprit involved, but the case around him will be defining the Tour outcome. Either some riders will no longer perform on the level they used to in the recent past, either some riders might be lifted from their bikes (the finish in Spanish Pla Beret?) and taken to the police station.
**** With a slight preference because of the experience and the strong team, Jan Ullrich is the ultimate favorite. He has a strong and well-balanced team and everybody knows it is now or never again. That pressure might be hard should he struggle uphill, but there is always the 100+km of time trialling, especially the last one, which he should dominate. Surely, Ivan Basso should be tired over his Giro win, but in the end is one of the few contenders to actually being able to hurt Ullrich uphill. The pain will be easily reverted in time trials though, not Ivan's best ability.
*** Alejandro Valverde is the man to watch, will he be the ultimate surprise winner. If one man is able to do this, he is. But to what extent would he or his teammates be involved with the Fuentes case. Imagine a Caisse d'Epargne without people like Pereiro and Karpets (blind guessing btw). Floyd Landis was the main third man until his awful Dauphine and was his bad performance a hidden consequence of the Fuentes case or not. Should he be progressing according to plan, the same plan that helped him take the Tour of California, Georgia and Paris-Nice, he should be considered as a the strongest candidate for the podium. Should... Probably short-winged by his time trialling, Francisco Mancebo will end up fourth again. To name at least one of the Discovery boys in the 3* section, Yaroslav Popovych seems set to be the possible bet.
** But Savoldelli and even Azevedo could easily deserve a place here. Personally, I would rank Hincapie slightly under these two. However, with such an abondance of strong riders, Discovery can simply make the Tour peloton explode. Who is going to chase Hincapie when he attacks in the mountains? And imagine Popovych just sticks to whomever is best uphill of Ullrich and Basso and Azevedo and Savoldelli join a counterattack? Cadel Evans probably will be happy with an eight place again, although he might come close to fifth or sixth should he be able to win a stage and repeat his Tour de Suisse time trialling. Surely an uncertain factor by all means is Alexander Vinokourov. Probably in his last attempt to have a go at the overall, his past Tour cv shows how moments of unbeatable brilliance were followed by grey weaker ones. Possibly the best ally for Discovery guerilla tactics, he too, like Landis, was putting down a bad result in the Dauphine right after the Fuentes outbreak. How big will the involvement be? Vino comes from a completely different background compared with many Spanish riders, but in the end it was Saiz who got caught with the 60.000 euros and how many of his team will be left over after the Spanish judicial system has made the names of those involved official? Will he even be able to participate still with the team or will he be joining another team last minute? The extrasportive troubles and uncertainty will prove to be a burden and a pressure, but didn't an American use to thrive on negative impulses to take seven Tour victories in a row? Iban Mayo will be a strong man in the Pyrenees and possible on the Alpe as well, but his time trailling will fail him ending higher than say sixth or seventh. As well, should Rabobank and/or CSC feel like opening the pack against the wind in Normandy and Brittany, he is likely to be an easy victim. Denis Menchov is a good time triallist and he could stick with the first bunch uphill and pretty much like his former team mate Levi Leipheimer end up high overall, close to the fifth stake. Of all the Giro contenders except Basso (Savoldelli wasn't a contender in the end), Cunego is likely to be end the highest. He's got everything to learn, but he also has nothing to loose.
* Christophe Moreau, Andreas Kloden, Egoi Martinez, Alberto Contador, Luis Leon Sanchez Gil, Garzelli, Rasmussen, Rujano, Pena, Rogers, Simoni, Karpets, Pereiro, Sastre, Schleck, Casar, Totschnig, Beloki, Di Luca, Iglinskij, Garate, Marchante
The green jersey final overall will be 1. Hushovd 2. Boonen 3. McEwen 4. Freire 5. Zabel 6. Ballan 7. Bennati
So, Santiago Botero and Giro runner up Gutierrez are currently on hold because of their involvement with Dr Fuentes. Communidad Valenciana will not take the Tour wild card that Unibet.com is now eagerly chasing and main sponsors of ProTour teams drop out and log on as if it were an afternoon neighborhood charity event.
The Tour countdown will of course be dominated by the events happening in Spain and anything related to it (just how far are the links to for instance CSC, T-Mobile and Phonak) and if there are links, how long will it take for the judicial apparatus to actually respond to the matter? Imagine rider X of team Y participating in the Tour, but after the Tour his team will be involved too much in the Fuentes case, what will UCI and ASO do? Get all the team's riders out of the final overall? Have another Tour without them (that might be the best thing for Ullrich though)?
Some people get very hot about all this and they might have a point, but on the other hand, the hypocrysy cuts both ways. Big Tours take more and more stress, not to mention the ludicrous amount of mountain stages in the Giro (or just think about any Angliru-like exploit) and the incredible high amount of pressure within teams to perform (according to the Golden League rules, in casu the ProTour).
Let's take the paranoia one step further and make the 06 Tour a 98 one, when teams dropped out, fled in the night, stayed outside French territory. CSC withdraws, Phonak withdraws, all the Spanish teams withdraw, some other Spanish and American riders (the Girona link? Armstrong was not the only one to train there) withdraw, T-Mobile does as well. Any other rider who has ever been involved with Kelme or Saiz or hardcore Spanish omerta-like cycling withdraws.
My bet? Christophe Moreau wins the Tour and the French go nuts. Argh, yes, Festina. Right: Philippe Gilbert wins the Tour and both the Belgians and the French (a French team) go nuts.
Three major focuses in this first roundup of the countdown to the Tour: the doping case in Spain, some things from the Giro and what about the others.
To what effect will the doping case have an effect on the startlist of riders starting in Starsbourg on the first of July. Will the anti-doping charter claim two major teams to drop out? Who will be replacing them? And if they are still allowed to race, how will their performances be judged? Imagine, they are allowed to start but their team leaders perform badly, how will that stop feeding rumours and suspicion? And what about the Saiz connection. He might very well be out of jail, but still: should one look into the past of his team riders, the list of 'cases' is very long. Even more so, it is only very easy to extend from ONCE and LSW to all Spanish teams and Spanish riders. Have a look at the last few years: 2002: Once's Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano tested positive for salbutamol while in the yellow jersey at the Tour. 2003: Once's Gianpaolo Caruso (13th overall in the 06 Giro) tested positive for nandrolon. After the worlds in Hamilton, blood samples from Saeco's Igor Astarloa (the world champion), Manuel Beltran, then US Postal - even though he was part of the failure Team Coast, where he was a team mate of Alex Zülle - and Aitor Osa of iBanesto bring up abnormal values. 2004: Kelme's Jesus Manzano confessions include information about organised doping use in his team Kelme. David Etxebarria - then as a Euskaltel rider, but he rode for ONCE in 98-99-00 and LSW in 05-06, denied to start in Asturias because of a too high hematocrite. Cofidis' David Millar, who tested positive on epo, admits it was Euskaltel's team manager who provided him with the stuff. At the end of that year Phonak's Santiago Perez is fired because of blood doping. 2005: Izidro Nozal denied to start at the Dauphiné because of a too high hematocrite, he is still part of LSW. In the same race Euskaltel's Igor Landaluze's testosteron level is too high, but so far nothing has happened. After a team test, Phonak fires Santos Gonzalez because of his hematocrite being too high. LSW's Nuno Ribeiro is not allowed to start at the Giro because of his hematocrite level being too high. Euskaltel's Aitor Gonzalez (but Fassa Bortolo and Kelme before that), who won the 05 Tour de Suisse, tested positif during the Vuelta but was recently acquitted. At the same Vuelta, race leader LSW's Roberto Heras (previously US Postal and Kelme) is fired because of failing an epo test. 2006: At the start of the Tour of Valencie no less than three riders of 3 Molinos are not allowed to start after they failed a blood test: Alberto Benito Guerrero, Rafael Casero Moreno (Festina in 00-01, Costa de Almeria in 02-03 and Saunier Duval in 04-05) and Antonio Tauler Llull, Kelme from 99 to 03 and Illes Baleares in 04 and 05. Ricardo Serrano Gonzalez, Kaiku, did not start the Tour of Murcia due to his too high hematocrite. Jan Hruska, part of Saiz's team from 01 to 05, was now riding for 3 Molinos and he tested too high a hematocrite. At the centre of all this is Eufemiano Fuentes, who as a team doctor has been involved with Amaya, Kelme, Once and Liberty Seguros. No wonder the list of the clients holds more than 200 names. And I'm probably forgotting more in the above overview anyway.
However, should one disregard the following: Alex Zülle upon confessing his epo use in his Festina year also said he had been using epo for four years, which leads back to three years of epo use at Once, upto 95, Once's wonder year when fast finisher Laurent Jalabert won the Vuelta and Johan Bruyneel - who also beat Indurain in a Tour stage - finishing third. As well, during the ugly story about UCI leaking information to L'Equipe about Lance Armstrong possibly using doping in the Tour of 99, one of the other names was Manuel Beltran, who then rode for Banesto. But isn't one of the major issues in this that one ought not to go back umph years. What's the point?
I guess the point is that whatever is relevant in the current Fuentes case is fine, anything else is history and hardly unproven gossip anyway.
A small addition to this all. One could easily go beyond Spanish borders: within the team of Phonak the following riders have been named in 'cases': Oscar Camenzind (epo), Tyler Hamilton (blood doping), Santiago Perez (blood doping), Santos Gonzalez (hematocrite), Fabrizio Guidi (epo, but the contratest was negative), Thomas Nose ("forbidden substances") and Sascha Urweider (testosteron).
Leading us back to this year's Giro, with Basso in galactico style. He must have spilt quite some energy, but then again, he might indeed be the one to pull off the double indeed. CSC already secured a bit of help of some friends, which is normal in this time of the year anyway (or put differently, which usually is sth T-Mobile forgets). Hence, the troops of Boonen will help out Basso's in the first half of the Tour by controling the race along with them. And should Garate be in a position to do sth back for his stage victory, why not. Some people think the Voigt/Garate thing was a disgrace to sport. Grow up, this is top sport. Basso earnings are well into the seven figures. Wake up. I wonder how Savoldelli will recover, probably not enough, he has been found to be little too light for the Tour before. Nevertheless, this Tour was more his thing than the Giro. As was said before. Jan Ullrich doesn't seem to be stopping making his career having farcical turns only, so would it be any different at the end of July than the last so many years. Hardly.
Another big favorite is Floyd Landis, who will start the Dauphiné soon, as well as Valverde and Vinokourov. Sadly enough, also Iban Mayo, Aitor Gonzalez, you know: of Spanish fame.
Is this Giro d'Italia already over and out, before the heavy last week of Dolomites even starts? Sure Ivan Basso can always repeat last year's collapse, one never knows, but the lead looks not only reassuring, the way Basso has been exercising pressure upon his competitors looks very Armstronglike: hammering the pedals uphill until no one can follow and as well having competitors who seem less capable of doing things than before.
With the heavy climbs ahead, the more pure climbers could maybe still be a thread. José Enrique Gutierrez will no doubt drop a few places, but only if he is being overtaken by a real climber. Savoldelli doesn't seem likely, veteran Belli probably either, Rujano has gone home, Pellizotti won't do it, nor Di Luca and obviously not Cunego. Remains Simoni and Danielson, resp. 8.00 and 8.35 behind... Does anyone still need the last week anyway? Big surprises aside, Basso will take his first big tour and the energy he will spend in the week ahead could be very useful for his double act.
Meanwhile the overall in Catalunya seems set to be a Saunier Duval victory, maybe still a late inspiration for Simoni? Nevertheless, great to see youngsters Hesjedal and Brajkovic nicely finishing high in the overall.
Looking forward to the final week at the Giro and subsequently the Dauphiné as well (how is Landis doing by the way?)!
With only one fairly short stage left, the Giro peloton is heading for its final resting day on Wednesday. Tomorrow's stage might have a climb with a difference of 800 metres, still the finish is more than 60k away from the finish. Maybe something for people like Axel Merckx, Philippe Gilbert and why not Paolo Bettini, he clearly is so eager he misses out on things he didn't use to miss out on. Despite a strong team (viva Baguet!).
After the resting day, the 50km time trial will again shake up the overall quite a lot. Basso securing his lead, with Gutierrez still close onto him, but all the others losing even more time (except for Savoldelli perhaps, depends on his allergy and his breathing problems). Honchar will move up one spot, maybe two.
The day after the TT, the Giro pack heads for the lovely Sestri Levante, not a difficult stage and then the next two days see pretty mountainous stages with downhill finishes. Here, Savoldelli has to take back large amounts of time as from Rovato onwards most finishes are uphill (or up hell in the case of Kronplatz).
Quite a surprise to see a Belgian in the KOM jersey, Stafke, but then again, why not? Did Rik Verbrugghe not take a nice victory in a mountainous stage? And what about the mountains to come Ivan, will they all be the same? When will Sastre not be around?
Meanwhile, the peloton in Spain is back to where the Protour left the country with Heras dubious Vuelta victory: a doping case. Jan Hruska of 3 Molinos is not the first of the team to suffer from exuberant health, but in the end things get a bit sad down there. Nevertheless, the initial stage, a 12,6km prologue had quite an impressive end result with Cancellara taking what seems as an obvious win, but Menchov looking ready for a great performance overall and Brajkovic already delivering here. Hunter is in good shape as well and he will take on the bunch sprints with Zabel, Bennati and Hushovd.
For the final overall, the Volta a Catalunya has some great names to battle it all out: Leipheimer, Menchov, Evans, Botero, Perdiguero, Karpets, Schleck, Samuel Sanchez, young guns Fothen, Barredo, Iglinskiy and home riders Jimenez, Plaza, Quesada.
Not only is tomorrow's team time trial a very short one - 38km - it must be the flattest course ever! 18 meters between the highest point and the lowest point and in-between them more than 22k... The handful bends might do the trick as well as the wind. The recent Giro's don't have a history of TTT, nor has this year seen that many encounters either.
At the Tour Méditerranéen, Credit Agricole beat Francaise des Jeux, Quick Step, Milram and Caisse d'Epargne with a few seconds and this in 18km. CSC won a 11.8km TTT at the Settimana Internazionale di Coppi & Bartali beating T-Mobile, Gerolsteiner, Lampre and Davitamon. And that's about it for this year if you ask me.
At last year's Tour De France, it was - of course - Discovery Channel taking the TTT stage. They won the 67.5km event by beating CSC by 2 seconds and T-Mobile by 36 (and further on: Liberty Seguros, Phonak, Credit Agricole...).
It is not all that easy to list the overall favorite to take the TTT tomorrow. Discovery will be close - with Ekimov at its drive - and they will be eager to take as much time they can get over any other of the candidates that can climb better - or is supposed to do so - than Paolo Savoldelli. Frankly speaking, they're my bet, especially with the confidence-boosting visit of Lance. CSC will do anything it can to beat them and if not finish as close as possible on the second place - with Jens Voigt being their drive.
Gerolsteiner will do anything it can to keep the maglia rosa, but they'll fail. Although the limited length of the TTT is to their benefit. The same goes for Davitamon, FDJ and Rabobank. Credit Agricole usually has good TTT rides as well. But most interesting would be to see how Simoni, Di Luca and Cunego will perform, aka how much time will they loose on Savoldelli?
And can Jan Ullrich already peak or will he have to drop behind the team as Rogers and Honchar might be going too fast.
What a descent, absolutely cool! Paolo Savoldelli is the true winner of a great prologue. Great course, great setting and great stage results. Beating your competitors with 11 seconds over a mere 6k. He simply must not have been using his brakes at all! Discovery has four riders in the first 30, so apparently they are going to be a force to be reckoned with, as ever! CSC has got three riders, but all between 13th and 18th and maybe Basso should have done a better job. OK, he might not be that explosive for the climb, but still... Caisse d'Epargne and Lampre also have three riders each in the first 30ish. Serhiy Honchar and Michael Rogers are also ready to take on a fair ride for the first two weeks, as are surprises of the day Stefan Schumacher (GST) and José Enrique Gutierrez Catalunya (Phonak). Another surprise would be the close finish of the two sprinters, Olaf Pollack and Alessandro Petacchi, two bunch sprint victories away from the maglia rosa.
A virtual overall of the five major candidates would be: 1. Savoldelli 2. Di Luca at 19" 3. Basso at 23" 4. Cunego at 25" 5. Simoni at 26" Still seconds and only the start, but didn't people use to write that about Lance Armstrong's first second gains as well?
And what about the Belgians? Rik Verbrugghe disappointed - again - coming in 20th at 28 seconds. Christophe Brandt didn't do that bad, being 22nd, but in the end what would Belgium cycling be without the general, the iron soldier of decades, Marc Wauters, 17th at 27"? Thanks Marc!
With about an hour to go before the real start of the Giro d'Italia, a child could list star ratings for the overall candidates. Defending champion Paolo Savoldelli might very well lack the capacity to follow the strongest people in the mountains (Plan de Corones will prove to be the key stage for him), but imagine that in the consecutive mountain stages no one really stands out, Paolo can have Tom Danielson attack and sit back himself. Anything goes, as long as they keep the overall in the team (with the help of especially Beltran, Ekimov, McCartney, Rubiera).
Damiano Cunego has got a very good form already and will (co-)dominate the first half of the Giro, but will he be able to last until the end? With Tadej Valjavec and Bruseghin he has some very powerful lieutenants at his disposal, even Vila Errondonea could take up that role, Petrov as well, but how well is able to return to three week stage racing after what happened last year?
Gilberto Simoni has the best results in the past years (2-3-1-1-3) and despite his age he will prove in the mountains to be a very painful factor for every other candidate. He might lack a strong team at first sight, but Piepoli should last very long and maybe Lobato Elvira takes up his previous 16th overall, or better. He who beats Simoni uphill wins the Giro.
Ivan Basso is named the most as the overall favorite, but will his gamble to ride and win both Giro and Tour and his preparation to that aim already pay off at the end of this heavy Giro? He is capable to pull off that trick, that is for sure, and he has a strong team behind him (Carlos Sastre, Sorensen, Cuesta, Julich!).
Pretty much a difficult factor to deal with is Danilo Di Luca. Even though he had won stage races before (Basque Tour for instance), his 4th place last year still is a bit of a surprise to some. He managed to do so by having had the luck by being very good on the decisive moments and able to follow without problems on any other moment. His coup with Simoni on the Finestre last year even proved to be one of the most exciting pieces of stage racing in the last decade. Still, will he be able to at least repeat last year's effort? He does have a very strong team around him with David Cioni, Franco Pellizotti, Andrea Noe and Vladimir Miholjevic.
T-Mobile has the closest rider following the above five top candidates: Serhiy Honchar (6-2-8-4-9), not only has Matthias Kessler, Jorg Ludewig and Michael Rogers to his possible disposal, there is also a certain Jan Ullrich taking away all the media coverage. Will der Jan even survive this heavy tour? Will his knee hold? Will he keep up mentally as he will be dropped on the climbs in the first half anyway? He might pull off one stunt in one of the last mountain stages, he has this fenomenal recovery and the rare capacity of getting better towards the end (like Basso), so that maybe - imagine - maybe this Giro was indeed the best prep for a second Tour de France victory?
Any other name in the predictions and forecasts will rank quite a bit lower, but nevertheless here are some more, candidates for a top ten that is: AG2R has no real overall players (unless Cheaurreau awakens, but then again, we're aiming at spot 20 or close to that), but they will be monitoring young star Carl Naibo's performances closely. And what has happened to John Gadret (14th in Romandie)? Vaitkus aims at stage success. Bouygues has different priorities than the Giro and it will show. Maybe Flickinger in a long breakaway twice. Cofidis aims at stage success as well (Bertagnolli is a local of the stage to the top of the Bondone). Leonardo Duque has to show he's worth his money, as is Ivan Parra. Scheirlinckx, Moreni and Monfort all aim at stages and/or breakaways, as is Rik Verbrugghe, in a not that distant past 9th overall (2002). Credit Agricole is difficult to gauge. They're Giro performance will be dependent upon initial successes (Botcharov, Halgand, Vogondy?). The strongest French team is LaFrançaise as they have the brash Philippe Gilbert for the Belgian stages and monitoring further progress, sure breakaways with Da Cruz and quite some coverage with Bradley McGee, favorite for the prologue and maybe even more. He has lost quite some weight, has been training for this Giro especially (as he already was 8th in 2004).
Except for Saunier, the Spanish teams lack real leaders: Caisse d'Epargne looks at Efimkin performance and riders like Pradera, Perez and Rippoll, but otherwise? Euskaltel is eagerly awaiting better times and experiencing heavy pressure from the sponsors, but will this team, including Laiseka, make the difference. I doubt it. Liberty on the other hand, has a nice mixture of young talent ready to mature(Michele Scarponi, Yakovlev, Gianpaolo Caruso), brash breakaway lovers (De Kort) and experienced veterans (Baranowski, Serrano and Unai Osa, the latter already 3rd in the Giro before).
Other Italian teams have their specific reasons of existence: Milram focuses upon Alessandro Petacchi merely, but even Alejet might find it difficult to have more than 3/4 sprinting opportunities. Selle Italia focuses on Rujano, but he has been nowhere so far and is leaving the team after the Giro so probably it will all have to come from veterans Belli, Barbero and Missaglia. Panaria on the other hand has some good riders (Mazzanti, Cuapio, Matveyev) assembled around Emmanuele Sella who undoubtedly after this Giro will join a lineup of a ProTour team next year. Quickstep has Paolo Bettini for the Belgian stages and some maglia rosa, but above all secretly hopes for another top five place overall by Juan Garate (already 4th, 5th and 10th).
To conclude the other remaining teams include Phonak (Guidi, Zampieri, Elmiger and Merckx, all betting on stage success), as is Gerolsteiner with Davide Rebellin (and Förster, Hiekmann, Moletta and Schumacher). This ends this overview with Davitamon, not only Robbie McEwen's team, but also one which has high hopes for Wim Van Huffel (and to a lesser extent Christophe Brandt - 14th already in the past - and Joseph Jufre).
and if possible - besides Petacchi and McEwen - hopefully stage victories for: Bettini, Pellizotti, Bertagnolli, Ardila, Merckx, Kessler, McCartney, McGee, Gilbert and Verbrugghe
The Giro start in Belgium is only a matter of hours now (roughly speaking, about 40) and before having a breakdown on the overall candidates, why not have a look at the Belgium stages, more in particular the prologue.
The 6.2km course is not exactly the easiest of prologues. It has, from 1.5km onwards and uphill part until 3.9km along the Chaussée de la Troque with an average gradient of 4%, but basically it consists of two steeper parts connected with a rolling bit. The steepest bit is 10%. After that, there is a fast descent to the Rue Val St Lambert. The planimetria of the stage is pretty straightforward, there is basically only one bend that will have the riders go use their brakes.
After the prologue, the first stage, 203km from Mons to Charleroi (Marcinelle actually), will probably see a first bunch spring already, there only is one minor climb (for the first climber jersey no doubt, nothing more). Thierry Marichal is a local, but I doubt whether he could pull of a stunt, he might have the maglia verde from that climb. He could also be a force behind a group of echappées that last until the finish line, but most likely Alessandro Petacchi will score his first stage win.
Given the fact that he is from around Liège, that he holds the record of fastest prologue victory ever (2001) and that he also has finished second in 02, Rik Verbrugghe still is a stage favorite for many, even though he hasn't displayed a great form lately. He might pull it off though, but he will see off Bradley McGee (winner in 04), Paolo Savoldelli (4th last year, 3rd in 02 and second in 00) in the first place and to a lesser extent other overall candidates like Ivan Basso, Bobby Julich, Danilo Di Luca, Gilberto Simoni, Davide Rebellin and Damiano Cunego. In the prologue of the recent Tour de Romandie Savoldelli came in first, McGee third, Valjavec sixth and Julich tenth.
Stage 2 takes the peloton in 202km from Perwez to Namur, with two smaller climbs and an uphill finish at the Namur Citadel (a 3rd category climb in the 1989 Tour de France, 2km at a 5.4% gradient and a maximum of 8%). The Citadel road is paved with cobblestones and no less a stage favorite than Paolo Bettini has been doing a reconnaissance of that stage already. Bettini also mentions on today's http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2006/it/ that he wants to leave Belgium in the leader jersey ("in testa alla corsa"). Although he might have trouble in beating the likes of Philippe Gilbert, Davide Rebellin, Alexandr Kolobnev, Matthias Kessler, Franco Pellizotti and - why not - Damiano Cunego already.
Stage 3 will not only see Lance Armstrong appear briefly, but will also most likely see Paolo Bettini in the maglia rosa riding through the Ardennes, in the 182km stage from Wanze to Hotton. With a couple of typical Liege-Bastogne-Liege climbs like Werbomont, Wanne and Haute Levée but the last one still is more than 100 kilometers away. Time enough for the sprinters to return, maybe this time for Robbie McEwen. Or it would have to be the near-local Belgians Rik Verbrugghe, and Philippe Gilbert (again).
On Wednesday 10 May, the peloton moves to Italy and starts racing again on Thursday 11th, for a flat team time trial of 38km (Piacenza-Cremona). After that, there are two very long stages. One for the sprinters and one with a major climb already.
With a few days left, the Giro fever has really started. Whatever the other races this time of the year, comes Frankfurt next stop is the Giro start. And of course it is going to be fun, or is it? For years already now, the Giro d'Italia includes some of the heaviest mountain stages around and this year it is no different! One could even wonder whether the race organizers are not putting a silly amount of stress upon riders and their natural capability to recover?
The race will start on Saturday anyway, regardless of what happens. The prologue in Seraing has a nasty - luckily little - climb in it, leaving space for homegrown Verbrugghe and Gilbert to perform to the best of their abilities, but who will beat the race favorites and the prologue specialists like Savoldelli and McGee?
After three more days of varying rolling Belgium, the pack is of to Italy. A couple of sprint stages apart, they'll have to cope with no less than 9 mountain stages, with four of them finishing at the top of the final climb! Key stages will be the 17th with the finish on the steep Plan de Corones and the last two, including mortifying climbs such as Pordoi, Tonale, Gavia and Mortirolo. All a bit too much if you ask me.
Also, this Giro's parcours doesn't really look like one for Savoldelli, who is a good climber, but not the best. Basso has a great capacity for recovery and is at his best in the final week, so he who beats Basso in stages 16 to 20 is the final winner. Cunego maybe?
A big race, big money, huge crowds of spectators and big names. It's a unfair to dismiss the classic in Frankfurt as one after the 'real' facts. www.henninger-rennen.de shows you how well organised everything is and based upon the start list there, one could expect the following.
Should justice be done, Steffen Wesemann wins the Henninger Turm. He has had great rides in the Amstel and Liège, is part of the major German team and a fast finisher after a heavy race. As well, he will have a team of people who all want to have the classic victory within the ranks of T-Mobile anyway (Ivanov, already 3rd and 4th in previous editions, Kirchen, Rogers, Sinkewitz). The other German team, Gerolsteiner, throws in Haussler, Rebellin (winner in 03, second in 01), Wegmann, Moletta and Markus Zberg (who won in 01, 3rd in 05). The other German part of the field, Erik Zabel, is a team of his own (he already won the race three times, 99, 02 and 05, 2nd in 03, 7th in 04), but might have to deal with team mate Petacchi first (all stage and overall in Rheinland last week!), but T-Mobile will never keep the race that closed that Alejet will still be hanging on for the final sprint. And what to expect from the current German champion, Ciolek, will he survive until the finish?
Karsten Kroon could have finally taken his classic victory (he already won in Frankfurt in 04), but he's not even participating, CSC only has Voigt and Schleck as their major players (quite enough firing power though!). Igor Astarloa might want to finish close before getting the name of being more or less passé anyway. Davitamon is in the winning mood (McEwen, Horner and Evans in Romandie), but probably has Leukemans only (6th in 04). The same goes for Liquigas and Garzelli, although they lack recent victories.
Imagine Danilo Hondo winning this great race (he did finish second after Kroon in 04...). It would be the ultimate classics disgrace.
Nevertheless, some remarks on the side: - none of the recent past winners is present, the most recent one is Paolo Savoldelli (2000 + a stage win), he also was 12th in 01 where he took 2 stages - the 01&02 (Frigo) and 03&04 (Hamilton) winners have been convicted for cheating, the former a bit more heavily than the latter - Bradley McGee won the 04 prologue and his best overall results were 9th (04) and 13th (01) - Oscar Pereiro won the 05 prologue - Valjavec has the following overall history: 10, 4, 24, 22 - Moos has 6, 6, 5, 7, 35 and a stage win in 04 - Ardila was 12th last year and 23rd in 04 - Aitor Gonzalez, who is allowed to race again, was 32nd in 02 and 8th in 01
And now: let's roll! Ready for some serious stage racing.
With a prologue of 3,4km and a final time trial of 20,4km, the Tour of Romandy seems to be set for the stage racer with the better time trialling capacities, but you never know. Romandy is a bit of an awkward stage race. There are still people that come from the classics or who link up via Switserland to the Giro. There are people who still need final tuning for that Giro or those who aim at the Giro only (and therefore only ride well with an occasional peak of race testing). As well, there are the Swiss riders and the guys from Phonak, eager to do well and if possible win the event (lucky for them Landis just took the Tour of Georgia). And there are riders who want to take all the publicity they can get as Giro and Tour are too high an aim.
Last year's top ten is a clear example of this 1. Santiago Botero Echeverry - not present this year 2. Damiano Cunego - not present this year, but he will be one of the main contenders for the Giro overall 3. Denis Menchov - not present this year 4. Alberto Contador Velasco 5. Marco Fertonani - not present this year 6. Alexandre Moos 7. Oscar Pereiro Sio 8. Manuel Beltran Martinez - not present this year 9. Daniel Atienza Urendez 10. Tadej Valjavec
One could easily get started on star ratings for Romandy, but in the end it would be a classification of who is capable of doing what but therefore not planning to do so. Obviously, the most important question - besides who will win the overall - is how Jan Ullrich will perform in the mountains. Or perform in general anyway. So let's browse through the starting grid quickly.
Besides the Ullrich issue, Mazzoleni might perform well and team leaders are looking out for youngster Kohl's performance as well (and Ludewig). Lampre's Valjavec is the team's stand in for Cunego. Davitamon has a lot of doubts these days and could use some positive publicity, most likely from Horner while many want to see how Van Huffel will be doing. Brand new superstar Valverde might want to prove to the outside world he's ready for another stage race win (mind you: he already won Valencia, Murcia and Burgos in previous years!), whereas Pereiro needs some results as well. All of Milram's team seems a bunch of outcasts, but why would Iglinskiy not get pretty far?
Without their team leader Vino, Liberty probably has the strongest team: Contador, Etxebarria, Kachechkin, Jaksche, Aitor Osa and Scarponi. They probably end up winning the event (Contador or Kachechkin?). CSC doesn't seem that solid, but they are working at three different fronts now. Nevertheless, good ol' Julich will ride well. Cofidis is hoping Leonardo Duque finally delivers, whereas Credit Agricole expects Caucchioli to do something similar. At Francaise Des Jeux, Bradley McGee is a strong favorite for the prologue, but beyond that?
Euskaltel hopes Haimar Zubeldia has one of his ups, whereas Saunier has Bertogliatti as a home rider (will Marchante eventually start?). Bouygues' Voeckler will try and win a stage, as well as Liquigas' Gasparotto. Liquigas has an outsider for the overall with Dario Cioni as well. LPR (Beuchat?) seems a bit lost, and AG2R has Mancebo ready, but what will be his next step this year?
Next to Phonak, Gerolsteiner has quite some Swiss riders as well, like the Zberg brothers, always eager. Austrian Totschnig is riding near home as well. QuickStep has a bunch of riders preparing for the Giro I reckon, similarly to Discovery. Will Bruyneel really take the gamble of sending Savoldelli into the Giro, whereas the Tour profile would suit that rider better? Interesting to see how youngster Van Den Broeck will survive. For Rabobank, it is about time Ardila delivers as well (the Colombian syndrome).
For the sprints, there are Bennati, McEwen, Valverde (will he risk sprinting as well?)
LBL was a fantastic race, with so many big names on top of the field, an organiser's dream! Alejandro Valverde is a great winner of a great concluding race of the classic season. And now onto the stage races (with the exception of Frankfurt), with the Tour of Romandy, followed by the Giro, which starts in Belgium (Bettini taking the stage in Namur!).
