This year's Paris-Nice is no less than 1275k and -let's be honest - the first real stage race of the year (a title which further on this year will be taken by the Basque Tour). The route looks slightly different in that the seven stages might very well rank no less than five climbs of the 1st category and eight of 2nd, not a single stage finishes uphill. Nor does the last stage has its traditional Col dEze ending. Despite all the changes, ASO has clearly kept in line with previous editions. Every year, the top 10 consists of stage race contenders, riders for the classics and all-round cyclists pur sang.
One of the likely surprises of the 4,8km prologue will be Tom Boonen. He won two stages last year, both of them in a bunch sprint (wearing the leader jersey for two days as well), but given his new training terrain around Monace and the short and explosive prologue, he can very well finish close.
There is no doubt that CSC is the strongest team this year. Last year winner Bobby Julich will be a strong candidate again and the Danish can always count on a more than good ride of Jens Voigt (already four times top ten), Frank Schleck (7th and 9th in the last two years) and David Zabriskie. It might very well be possible that this PN will be a prolongation of the recent Tour of California (1. Floyd Landis, 2. Zabriskie, 3. Julich).
Discovery Channel leaves their jokerman for the Tour de France George Hincapie home and they hope that their youngsters like Janez Brajkovic or Vladimir Gusev can have an early season overall good performance. Or would one of the real Tour heirs, Alexander Popovych,show he can be a team and race leader?
Other talents to keep an eye on are Thomas Lövkvist, Alberto Contador, Andrei Kachechkin (his boss, Alexander Vinokourov, also mister Paris-Nice, is not present) and Linus Gerdemann. And who knows how far classics specialist like Erik Dekker, but especially Kim Kirchen will get.
Alejandro Valverde does not start, which is a pity as last year's runners up, he could prove his good year in France calls for (so much) more. He leaves the team honour to be defended by Antonio Colom Mas, who recently won the Tour of Valencia, and to Constantino Zaballa, who finished third last year. Other Spanish riders can be expected to some extent as well, as especially Euskaltel riders who have been up and down so mysteriously in the past couple of years, are now back in one of their peak moments.
As they have been dominating the start of the seaon, there are quite some Belgians riders other than Boonen to watch for as well: can Rik Verbrugghe go for the prologue titile and what can Gert Steegmans, Maxim Monfort, Axel Merckx do? And the guy who wants to be more than the first lieutenant of Elvis on the bike Nick Nuyens.
So Tom Boonen looses a sprint against Alessandro Petacchi. Major headlines tomorrow, but in the end no big deal. Should he not win in a sprint tomorrow again, even then, no big deal. He has been training uphil a lot and his 'train' wasn't perfect, but everything will be in place for Milaan-Sanremo, don't you worry.
Another indication for the Classics is the Trofeo Laigueglia, won by another Alessandro, Ballan, Lampre's secret weapon for the classics. Still in the frontline is Nocentini. Caucchioli is clearly riding well too. Close to the front of the finishers are people like Bettini, Figueras and Celestino.
As for the classics themselves. There will be updates on all the teams and a barometer per classic in the month ahead.
The Omloop Het Volk is still more than 12 days away, and already headlines are talking about the Classics more than ever before. The organisers of the Dwars door Vlaanderen (more than a six weeks away!) hope for a clash between Boonen, McEwen and Petacchi. It could indeed end in a clash of the kings of sprint, but as Cycling Weekly has made it clear in their editorial: "Is Boonen unbeatable?". They list as possible adversaries Philippe Gilbert for Het Volk, Alessandro Petacchi for Milaan-Sanremo, Peter Van Petegem for the Tour of Flanders and Fabian Cancellara for Paris-Roubaix.
The latter might want to hope for a lesser anti-Danish feeling in the suburbs of North France cities. Cycling in the end remains a vulnerable public arena and a lot can happen with only a small action of a few (one of the concerns of the organisation of the Tour launch in London next year)
The CW Editorial even goes further in the predictions and lists Boonen as the winner of Milaan-Sanremo, Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. The same issue has also gathered some rumours and CW is quoted to have overheard Johan Bruyneel motivating George Hincapie to lead the team at the Tourv de France. Hello people? No way Hincapie can win the Tour! However, he can become the psychological leader of the team without a firm ambition of getting higher than - say - fifth overall. Nevertheless, he will be a force to be reckoned with. Who will ride after George, when he were to follow a jump by Vinokourov? And meanwhile Popovych and Savoldelli just have to follow CSC and T-Mobile...
The difference with the races so far this year is that the results that will be booked in the second ten days of February will tell much more about what to expect. Erik Zabel continues to show early form. Even though he hasn't been able to win yet, it shows that his move away from the Ullrich clan did not affect his motivation. Erik will be ready for another Milan-Sanremo.
That type of victory in a major classic will never be Robbie McEwen's game, but still he has alreaady won his handful of stages and now even an overall, the GP Costa Azul. Two other names from that race are Enrico Dagano from Barloworld but more importantly Bernhard Eisel.
Eisel is one of the three youngsters of FDJ that might very well be in his break through season. Eisel was the only one to beat Boonen in Qatar. Another FDJ talent, Thomas Lövkvist, finished second at the Mont Faron stage and sixth overall in the Tour Méditerranéen. The third youngster, Philippe Gilbert, finished 12th overall. In the same overall result, Botcharov and Caucchioli might then be the two runners up, they owe it mostly to the team time trial.
The overall winner, Cyril Dessel from A2R, the same team that already took the overall in the Tour Down Under with Simon Gerrans. Have the French teams then indeed been dominated by their antithese Armstrong in that they can only break free now? However, Dessel seems to have run into a lucky moment, virtually his only other result would be his silver medal at the national championship last year.
In the Ruta del Sol the Quesada brothers have run the show of the first stage. Nothing major happened besides that rather encyclopaedic fact. Quesada, who? Indeed, most likely just another Spanish rider who can only win when he's competing in Spain. Ask Quickstep's Lefevre.
The linked stages in Mallorca has seen some real riders take their first score already. Isaac Galvez Lopez might perhaps still rank under the same category of Spanish riders as discussed just now, he did indeed beat the whole pack twice, including people like Elmiger, Haussler, Förster, Bettini, Chicchi, Flecha and Paolini. A list of names that is already quite an interesting read. Sadly enough David Bernabeu won one stage and came in third in another. Bernabeu has been suspended in 2003 for the use of a banned corticoide. Odds are he will not finish first in a cycling competition outside Spain (hell, even his teammate from his then team Milaneza Francisco Perez got a new chance at Ileas Baleares).
So, allow me to put question marks behind the current ethos in the peloton when people like Hamilton get their sentence confirmed (and it only started so many months after the fact, so in effect the suspension is more than two years) and people like Filip Meirhaeghe cannot even join a randonnée for nearly two years, whereas the two Davids, Bruylandts and Millar, are allowed to train with their future team (Unibet and Saunier respectively).
However, back to more positive analysis: the last stage in Mallorca brought to the fore names that are out to confirm last year's results or the promises they hold: David Kopp, Lorenzo Bernucci and Linus Gerdemann are definitely being monitored.
As for the week ahead: clearly the Ruta del Sol is to start for real still, but more importantly: the Trofeo Laigueglia on Tuesday and the Haut-Var on Saturday will bring to the fore some more real and tough names.
Getting started. Slowly recovering from a 7 year upper cut.
Lance Armstrong has left the world of cycling as an active pro rider, nothing new there. However, try to imagine the impact of this guy and his team and teammates after seven Tour de France victories. Everything has changed: preparation has become a solid science, with much less focus on medical advice than mostly French people would beleive. Lance made the sport evolve around motivation, anger, determination, teamwork and above all Big Money. I often give credit to the French riders when they mention a world of cycling at two speeds: true, I cannot imagine one French rider having seen a wind tunnel from the inside... No wonder they get left behind!
Anyway, this blog is not about pro X or contra Y, but it is an infrequently updated analysis of the current cycling season, the year post-Armstrong 0. Only after the end of this season will we know whether or not this was a year 0 (with no particular big name stepping to the throne of the Texan Rider and even with another Discovery Channel Tour victory) or year 1 (with a new boss in cycling). But would any new boss have the same long term impact on cycling ... Time will tell.
So far, this year has seen races in Australia, Langkawi, Mallorca and Qatar. Whatever the importance may be for some people to have early season victory, the first real competition is now getting started: the Tour Meditteranéen for sure is one. The summit of the Mont Faron never lies and brings to the fore riders who will be there for the rest of the year, or at least in the weeks to come. Last year top four: Voigt, Moncoutié, Pellizotti and Schleck. Thomas Lövkvist, second in this year's Faron stage, was sixth last year. Tomorrow, Sunday 12th of February also sees the start of the first confrontations between Boonen and Petacchi at the Ruta del Sol. Boom boom Boonen, also called Elvis on a bike, might very well have won a handful of Qatar races, if they would remain his only victories, no one would remember. However, he looks extremely fit and strong and above all, he looks like having lost more weight than last year. Didn't Cycle Sport of Cycling Weekly mention that he might want to have a try at the Tour de France overall?
So many questions, so many names to keep an eye on, so many stories to tell (hell, Hamilton got his suspension confirmed today, a two year ban, what about that Roberto!).
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