In one of my previous contributions I mentioned that British and American rhetoric about pulling out and withdrawal plays in the hands of the insurgents and is detrimental for the future of the coalition troops in Afghanistan. This opinion has been confirmed by Michel Semple. Semple was an EU and UN representative who has been a focal point for the Taliban to talk to the institutions he has represented. He has been living in Afghanistan his whole life and kept up the dialogue with Taliban during their rule. In 2007, Karzai kicked him out of the country because he organized talks with Taliban commanders which he believed were held to gather a Taliban army to topple the government.

Semple declared that the Taliban leadership in the Quetta Shura will talk about peace only if they are convinced that the Americans are willing to stay for a long time. This is how he puts it: “When it comes down to it, this war is going to be decided over the decisions of fathers of Pashto young men who are being asked by Taliban commanders to give them their sons to go out and fight against the Afghan government. And at the moment the message that those Taliban commander recruiters are bringing is that give us our son - it's a great fight against the United States. It's a fight against the puppet regime and we're going to chase the Americans out and the puppet regime is going to be toppled. It is the argument, the discussion in those houses which will decide the fate of Afghanistan and also stability inside of South Asia. And anything we can do to change the tenor of that discussion will help so that fathers of those Pashto young men say: that's what you said last year when you took my other son and he's dead and the Americans still haven't run away and the puppet regime still hasn't toppled and actually this year it looks less likely to topple.”

He continues by saying that there are two factions within the insurgents. One faction feels that the costs of sustaining this conflict are not weighing up against the benefits. The other group argues that the Americans are not serious about their mission. They can feel they are winning and anticipate the withdrawal of NATO which would give them a chance to rule the country again. This is what Semple has to say about this: “As far as I'm concerned one of the best things you can do to help the progress of reconciliation of peace is to make sure that those hawks inside the insurgency decisively lose that argument, that it should be absolutely clear that nobody can topple the system which was put in place in Afghanistan by the process.”

Semple believes that to achieve this you don’t necessarily need more troops but another military strategy. He says that the presence of NATO forces in the North of the country is simply a magnet for insurgents to operate in this area. He says that their presence there is unnecessary and could be left to Afghan security forces. Focusing on main population centres instead of going out and looking for a fight would decrease the casualties and make NATO’s mission more acceptable at home which could extend their commitment to operate in Afghanistan. The longer you are prepared to stay, the sooner you can get out.

02-12-2009 om 06:46 geschreven door gijoom  

A lot has been written lately about Obama’s decision whether or not to send more troops to Afghanistan. The least we can say is, he’s taking his time. It’s been a couple of months now that General McChrystal, the head of ISAF and the American troops, presented his report, asking for a change in strategy and a surge in troops.

The change in strategy entails a change to counter-insurgency. This means that instead of focusing on tracking down and eliminating high-level Al-Qaeda members by drone attacks or deploying special forces, they would concentrate on protecting civilians and training the Afghan army. The protection of civilians would lead to stability and reconstruction which would lead to an Afghan nation that could resist by itself to the threat of insurgents. But to accomplish this, the forces on the ground need additional troops.

In this light, Obama’s demand to sack Wali Karzai could be an important indicator which direction the Americans will take. If they would want to continue with a counter-terrorism strategy meaning tracking down and eliminating high-level insurgents they need figures like Wali Karzai on their side. Powerful personalities who are balancing between good and bad. People like this have one foot in the world of criminals and insurgents and can be used by the CIA or the military intelligence services to extract information. Wali Karzai was a person like this. He is the most powerful man in the South of the country (where Taliban is the strongest) and was running drug schemes which have alliances with the Taliban. There is a high probability that this made him one of the most crucial assets for the CIA to extract intelligence. The fact that Obama is willing to give him up could mean he made up his mind about the counter-insurgency strategy.

Then there is still the question on how much troops to send. General McChrystal asks for at least 40.000 additional troops in order to be successful in his mission. But Obama already said he will not put the lives of additional troops at risk unless they have a credible partner to work with in Kabul. That’s one of the reasons Obama is taking so long. Now that we are certain Karzai stays in power he wants him to form a credible and widely supported government that hasn’t been tainted by corruption in the past. This seems almost impossible since Karzai promised high functions too many warlords accused of human rights violations in order for their support on election day. In Kabul the rumour goes that the new government will consist out of 8 new ministries on top of the 25 that already existed just to fulfill all his promises. Obama has to balance the urgency for the troop surge to be successful in their campaign and the risk of further supporting a future government that will exist out of warlords. A solution to this could be that they send 10.000 to 15.000 troops in short term. One time Karzai presented his new government they could send another 25.000 to 30.000 troops.

Karzai will be inaugurated 19^th of November. The expectations are that he will announce his new government within two weeks after that.

20-11-2009 om 08:56 geschreven door gijoom  

A couple of weeks ago I was watching CNN, Al-Jazeera and BBC and I noticed something. Where before the international news was dominated by Israel, Palestina and Iraq now it is, more than ever, focused on South-Asia. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran were attributed 40 minutes of a one hour news-bulletin. The headlines were the Afghan elections and Obama’s decision whether or not to send more troops, the start of a new offensive of the Pakistan army to root out militants in Waziristan and the Iranian government’s decision on the nuclear issue. In between they were also covering the attack on the Revolutionary Guard in Iran and several attacks of militants in Afghan and Pakistani cities.

One of the reasons for this increased attention could be the shift in mindset that took place in Washington from Iraq towards Afghanistan and Pakistan. The only sign that gives away their continuing interest in the Middle East is their attempt to revive the Palestinian issue which is not that successful as anticipated.

Especially the shift from Iraq to Afghanistan could be a fatal error for Obama. In the beginning of his term Iraq was considered as Bush’s war. A war that Bush himself started and which can not be ended due to the complexity of Iraq’s society. Obama did his best to distance himself from this war and focused all of his resources to Afghanistan, which is considered a more legitimate war. One year later Iraq seems to settle down and is somehow stable while in Afghanistan the American and especially the British public feel like they are on a sinking ship they have to leave as soon as possible. Last week Obama even threatened Karzai that the American forces would leave his country if he didn’t take into account his demands in forming a new inclusive and corruption-free government. In addition, Obama gave him an ultimatum of six months to sack his brother Wali Karzai. You can put pressure on a state leader to make him comply with your demands all you want but if you ask someone to sack his brother it becomes a personal matter. Karzai’s brother is the governor of the southern province of Kandahar. He is also a well-known druglord who does not seem to get the difference between his role as governor and criminal. Last week journalists were reporting on the fact that he was on the CIA-payroll to recruit local militia’s in the fight against Taliban. Apparently he wasn’t doing a very good job or Obama wanted to give a signal to his intelligence services not to work with people like this because now he wants him to be sacked within 6 months. Although Obama’s reasons for this demand are sincere, he wants to give the government more credibility and support from the population, he shouldn’t play things personal. I’m sure there are hundreds of officials just like Wali Karzai who are using their position to make money in drugs and sponsor their private armies.

It sounds very unlikely that the Americans will pull-out of Afghanistan within six months but the very fact that the outside world even thinks they are considering it, has a tremendous consequence for the war in Afghanistan. In neighbouring Pakistan the army started an offensive against the Taliban in Waziristan. They are attacking the Pakistani Taliban, which means the ones who are responsible for the series of bomb attacks in Pakistani cities. But the Afghan Taliban which is responsible for most of the bloodshed in Afghanistan is organizing and operating freely from in their territory. Quetta, a city just over the border inside Pakistan is a well-known Afghan Taliban sanctuary. An entire suburb of this city is inhabited by its leadership. In this city the ‘Shura’, a kind of council, gathers regularly to make decisions on the insurgent’s future strategy. The Taliban’s ‘logistics department’ is also located in this city and provides their fighters with cell phones, motorbikes, money and weapons.

So why is Pakistan allowing them to operate from their territory? The reason is simple. Islamabad fears that the loss of lives and public opinion will eventually lead to the retreat of the international forces. In that case, most probably, Taliban will take power over Afghanistan. Pakistan is anticipating this and wants to have a good relation with the future leaders of their neighbouring country. In this perspective Obama’s threat to leave the country is not very productive in encouraging Pakistan to take on the Afghan Taliban on Pakistani territory.

11-11-2009 om 12:12 geschreven door gijoom  

What lots of people feared and lots of security assessments predicted, has happened. On Wednesday 28^th October around 05.30AM 3 insurgents killed 2 armed security guards and 1 civilian and made their way into a UN-guesthouse. They were carrying AK-47’s, RPG’s and hand grenades. Two hours later the siege was finished and 5 UN-employees lost their lives. Although the police station is close, it took the Afghan police force one hour before arriving at the scene. For one hour some heroic security guards armed with only a pistol were able to hold of as much as possible the three heavily armed insurgents. Most people in the guesthouse were still sleeping but woke up because of the blasts and gunshots and were able to escape. Unfortunately 5 of them didn’t. When the situation at the guesthouse was under control two rockets were fired on the only 5-star hotel in Kabul. The very moment these attacks were happening people were in shock. The expats in Kabul form a small community so everybody knows somebody who lives in the attacked guesthouse. If you went outside your guesthouse you could see the smoke plumes making their way to the sky from the burning guesthouse. Everybody realized that this attack not only took the lives of 5 innocent people but that it would change the future of the UN in Afghanistan.

One week after the attacks Ban Ki Moon himself decided to bring home around 600 UN-staff who are not deemed essential. It’s introduced as a temporary measure until the UN has revised their security policy but lots of people fear this measure is the beginning of a partial pull-out of the UN. They would start a new UN-hub in Dubai from where people can work on projects in Afghanistan who are not needed in the field. In the meanwhile the expat-community is complaining about the lack of leadership within the UN mission and feel unsafe in their guesthouses. People can’t understand why it has to take one week to make this decision. A lot of rumors are going back and forward and nobody knows what will happen next. Procedure states that after an attack like this the staff should be evacuated within two days. Impossible for a bureaucratic and slow organization as the UN. The purpose of the attack on the guesthouse was to disrupt the UN in organizing the elections. Is the UN still a target now that the elections are cancelled? Another attack against UN-personnel would more than probably mean that the UN is leaving this country since they can not ensure the safety of their personnel. But does the Taliban want this. Unwillingly the UN is a source of income for the insurgents. Nobody wants to see a source of income vanish because of his own actions. Maybe they consider their point made and will focus on their number one enemy again: the international and local security forces. A lot of people here in Kabul would sleep better if this would be confirmed.

07-11-2009 om 11:01 geschreven door gijoom  

As you can see I forgot to add scenario 5. Nobody was able to predict what really happened. A first round of elections rigged by fraud was still predictable but what happened afterwards was unseen and unprecedented. The UN that tried to cover up the amount of fraud and as a consequence the sacking of a top UN staff member. The opposition leader Dr. Abdullah Abdullah who pulls out of the race because the election commission and the UN can’t ensure a run-off without fraud and the international community that endorses Karzai as a president based on the votes from the first election round which contained massive fraud.

The main question now is: What is happening behind the scenes? Everybody agrees that Abdullah Abdullah came stronger out of this process. Some reports say he and Karzai are negotiating behind the scenes to include some of Abdullah’s supporters in the government. Pulling out of the second round could then be seen as a way to put pressure on Karzai. But it remains a question mark if this strategy is working. His rhetoric of the past weeks indicates not. One week ago Abdullah placed himself outside the race because of his legitimate fears of fraud, but didn’t say he wanted to boycot the elections. This way he kept initiative and putted pressure on karzai and the international community, to either work on fair elections or to include him in a government. When Hilary Clinton announced that pulling out of the run-off is not an obstacle to declare Karzai the winner of the elections his rhetoric changed. Now he’s declaring that the announcement of Karzai as president is unconstitutional. He has a point. Nowhere in the constitution is mentioned that the election commission can appoint a president. It should be the Supreme Court who makes the decision. Remarkably up until now Abdullah’s supporters kept quiet, except for some peaceful demonstrations. But nobody knows what will happen in the future. Of course the international community is putting pressure on Karzai to include some of Abdullah’s men in his government. But what if Karzai, in the momentum of his victory, feels strong enough to ignore the calls of the international community? Supporters of Abdullah already informed Abdullah himself they are ready to react in any kind of way he wants. Yesterday local media was reported on a visit from the governor of Balkh, a province in the North where Abdullah is very popular, to Kabul where he met Abdullah and allegedly discussed how to proceed. Maybe they feel Karzai wont give them anything and time for action has come. And they are ready for action. A couple of weeks before the elections local people were telling me the price for a Kalashnikov increased seriously because the demand was very high. They thought it was Abdullah’s supporters who were buying up guns to prepare for elections. I think we will know more in a couple of weeks when Karzai presents his new, corruption-fighting government.

07-11-2009 om 09:31 geschreven door gijoom  

Less than two weeks before polling day, the elections predominate much of the conversations in Kabul. The main topics discussed on the streets and between presidential candidates are: the increase of civilian casualties, the presence of foreign troops, corruption, the deteriorating security situation and the lack of tangible improvements of ordinary people’s livelihood. Two weeks ago, David Milliband and Hilary Clinton, threw a new hot-debated issue in the election pond: reconciliation with moderate insurgents. The American and British governments underwent a reality-check. Forced by an increasing death toll suffered by their forces and a decreasing domestic support for their military presence in Afghanistan, they stated for the first time the possibility of a negotiated settlement. Insurgents who are not ideologically-driven but take part in insurgent activities because of the money or because they were forced, would be encouraged to abandon their guns and participate in reintegration activities set up by the Americans and the Afghan government. The next day Karzai announced he struck a deal with the Taliban in a Northern Province not to disrupt the elections. This province had only a small number of insurgents present and they immediately denied there was such a deal.

On 23^rd of July Tolo TV, a commercial Afghan TV-station, organized a presidential debate. The three most popular candidates were invited but Karzai pulled out shortly before, claiming the TV-station was biased. Karzai’s move made him look bad and was widely criticized. The Independent Election Commission announced that Karzai received 72% of government-run print media coverage compared to 12% for Abdullah Abdullah.

Recent field research suggests that Afghans are less inclined to vote along ethnic lines. 70% of the Afghans is willing to vote for a candidate that doesn’t belong to their ethnicity. A president elected based on his merits instead of his ethnicity could encourage more transparent and democratic institutions in Afghanistan. However, it is believed that because of the high stakes involved in this election, Afghans will prefer to vote along their ethnicity. This could have a disastrous outcome. Karzai’s supporters are based in Pashtun strongholds which mirror Afghanistan’s most insecure areas. The Independent Election Commission says that around 700 or 10% of all polling stations could be closed on election day mainly in these areas due to security concerns. Insurgents have announced to decapitate or execute in other fashionable ways, everyone who has indelible ink on his pinky. Furthermore they stated to wipe out mobile phone towers in order to cripple communication between government agencies and to attack ballot boxes and voting documents. The insurgents have been creating an atmosphere of fear for months now. The intimidation of voters and the closing down of polling stations could result in low voter turn-out in Pashtun areas. This will spark claims of illegitimate elections and could be enforced by a high voter turnout in Northern Tajik areas which are safer than the South and the East of the country. This would be in favor of Abdullah Abdullah who has a strong supporter base among Tajiks.

However this election will evolve, violence will be around the corner. What follows are a couple of the more realistic scenarios for the elections.

Scenario 1: violence, suicide attacks, voter intimidation, coordinated attacks on government buildings are so high in the South and East of the country in the run up to the elections that Karzai will declare a state of emergency which could postpone the elections. He doesn’t want to risk going to the polls when his supporters are intimidated and a low voter turnout is probable. The opposition will fight this decision as Karzai being afraid of going to the polls and wanting to hang on on power. Civil unrest could emerge.

Scenario 2: Karzai wins the first round outright. If this would be combined with a low voter turnout among Pashtuns and a high voter turnout among Tajiks, the opposition will claim the elections were rigged. Afghanistan could find itself in the same situation as its western neighbour Iran, but much, much more bloody. In particular the Tajik-community could react violently. Abdullah Abdullah has already declared to stage mass protests on the streets of Kabul after the announcement of the winner. These protests won’t be peaceful since Kabulis have been talking for weeks about supporters of Abdullah smuggling weapons into Kabul in order not to protest empty-handed.

Scenario 3: Nobody gets 50% of the votes. The Independent Election Commission provides two weeks to count the votes and another two weeks for filing complaints of fraud during the elections. So, the first results will be announced 3^rd of September and the complaints period ends the 17^th. After this period, elections should be organized within two weeks. The possibility that Karzai declares the state of emergency is even higher this time because the tension will be higher and the opposition will round up behind the runner-up. This decision would be regarded as unconstitutional. In the previous contribution I mentioned that Karzai’s presidency should have ended in May. If he would postpone the run-off nobody will perceive him as a legitimate president which could trigger violence all over the country.

Scenario 4: The Independent Election Commission declares the winner after the run-up. Tension will be extremely high and who ever comes second will claim victory and take it to the streets.

Whatever direction this election may go, violence looms around the corner. An additional factor that could be a catastrophe for Afghanistan’s institutions is the break-up of the army. Kabul has a mixed Pashtun and Tajik population. The army exists mostly out of Tajik soldiers. If fighting would erupt among ethnic lines there is a possibility the army may disintegrate and join the factional fighting. If the army would no longer serve Karzai, the only way he can save his presidency is by appealing the international forces for support. If this would be the case it’s unclear if the international forces would get involved or just stand-by and defend key-facilities like embassies and UN-buildings. A crack-down of the international coalition would be perceived as a crack-down on the opposition and would result in bloodshed. Karzai would loose all credibility and be regarded as a puppet of the West. The only credible or capable replacers would be the one you just started a war against or the Taliban.

A lot of analysts and observers predict that the post-election period will be the most volatile period. Before the elections and on election day we will have the anticipated violence caused by insurgents. It is the post-election period, with the announcement of the new president, that could trigger the country in a civil war that could take back Afghanistan 20 years in time. These events could take Afghanistan back to the time when they just kicked out the Russian-backed communist government and fighting amongst Afghans cost the lives of thousands and thousand civilians. Back then, the only ones who were able to put a stop to the violence and bring peace in Kabul were a marginalized group of Pakistani Muslim students called the Taliban. Let’s hope Afghanistan’s contemporary leaders and the international forces won’t let it come to that point.

11-08-2009 om 14:49 geschreven door gijoom  

Did you know that Afghanistan is very pro-India. I’m not just talking about ordinary Afghans who just adore Bollywood movies. Also the government fosters strong relations with India due to aid and trade. This doesn’t pass to well with Pakistan. They feel kind of surrounded. India is its arch-enemy and relations with Afghanistan are strained due to Karzai’s accusations that Islamabad supports insurgents and his threats to attack militants across the border in the mountainous tribal areas of Pakistan. All of this culminated in the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul. In July 2008 a car bomb rammed the gates of the embassy and killed 41 people. It was the deadliest attack in Kabul since the invasion in 2001. Quickly after the attack Afghan government officials declared this attack was carried out to disrupt relations between India and Afghanistan. The one who would benefit the most of deteriorating relations between these two countries is Pakistan. It is widely believed but never outspoken that the ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence service, was involved in the bomb attack. The Afghan Minister of Interior stated that they believe the attack was carried out "in co-ordination and consultation with an active intelligence service in the region". Without saying it explicitly everybody knew who he was talking about.

The burqa. The burqa was not introduced by the Taliban as is widely believed but they did make it compulsory. The burqa is actually a cultural phenomenon that exists for more than 100 years. People acknowledge it is not something you have to wear in order to be a good Muslim. They accept the fact that the Koran prescribes to cover everything except your face and your hands. The reason the women wear a burqa is because men would feel more relaxed. Men in Afghanistan are not only attracted by the curves of the body but claim there is a lot of beauty in the face as well (sissiesJ). In order not to be led into temptation they want their women to cover their faces as well. In short, the reason why women wear the burqa is because men can’t control themselves. At least that is what I understood from my first conversation with a man who’s wife wears a burqa sometimes. According to him the final choice to wear it or not, is the decision of the women. A burqa costs around 12 USD and you have them in all sizes and colours. Blue is the most common, but in the North women tend to wear white ones. They also exist in black and red. But I think I will have to see one before I believe that.

A crate of Heineken, on the other hand, costs 55 USD in the UN-shop and on the black market 42 USD. Selling or serving alcohol is forbidden in Kabul except in some places where expats visit regularly. These places made a deal with the government. They can serve alcohol only if they forbid access too local Afghans. For 21^st of July I went to Kabul airport to celebrate the Belgian national holiday (first time I heard so many people shouting with conviction: vive le roi!!!). The Belgian army is based in the airport, so I overheard they wanted to prohibit alcohol for all soldiers on the airport base. Luckily, the Belgian Minister of Defence, Mr De Crem himself, avoided this rule from being implemented. Now soldiers from all over the world present in Kabul are grateful to our Minister. And that evening, for the first time in my life, I was proud of our Minister of Defence.

If you want to be with an Afghan girl, you shouldn’t do things Western style. Getting her drunk, won’t seal the deal. Here, in Kabul at least, you can meet a girl, in a public place, the office, anywhere. If you like her, you can talk to her but nothing else. If you get along very well and you want to take the next step, you will have to activate your family. The boy warns his family who will go to the girls’ family to make a proposal. The girls family can accept or refuse. At least here in Kabul parents take into account what their sons and daughters wish for themselves. In the rural areas I suspect it’s a whole other story. You are allowed to have up to four wives on condition you can take care of them equally. Not only financially but also in the way you love your women.

I’ve already told you about Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). Well, apparently they exist in quite a range of appearances. You have the famous Body Borne IED (BBIED) and the Vehicle Borne IED (VBIED). But in the ANSO, the monthly security update for NGO’s, they also mention the less known DBIED which stands for Donkey Borne Improvised Explosive Devices. In the beginning the coalition troops were here, they got attacked by VBIED all the time. It got so bad that the moment a vehicle got too close to a military convoy they would shoot it. Last time we passed a convoy our driver parked on the side of the road not to look suspicious. The insurgents’ solution, inventive as always, was to invent the DBIED. That’s why sometimes coalition forces shoot suspicious donkeys and dogs on the way to their base and on patrolling exercises. Donkeys, another, less-known victim in this crazy war.

25-07-2009 om 12:25 geschreven door gijoom  

Since May this year Afghanistan has a lame duck as president. President Karzai’s term in office was supposed to end in May. Karzai wanted to organize elections during spring time but was stopped by the election commission and the international community. The opposition accused him of trying to clear the field of challengers since they couldn’t be ready to campaign by that time. The fact that insurgents control more than half of the country was another reason to postpone the elections. Under pressure of the international community and because of the decision made by the election committee, Karzai was forced to organize elections on 20^thAugust. This raised the question of who would rule the country from May until August. In the end the Supreme Court decided, against the will of the parliament and the opposition, that Karzai could stay in power until the next president was chosen. Analysts feared a power vacuum and the opposition was afraid that Karzai was going to take advantage from his presidential status to organize his campaign.

In the meanwhile American and British troops are cleaning up the South to ensure the elections can take place without fear of being terrorized and manipulated by the insurgents. This is one of the main reasons why I mentioned in my previous contribution that this military operation is crucial for the future of the country. If the insurgents hold control over these areas and prevent people from voting, enemies of the government could claim the next administration is elected undemocratically because of the low voter turn-out. This could lessen the legitimacy of the next president and ultimately destabilize the country.

Up until now Karzai has been doing exactly what the opposition feared. He used the power given to him as president to break up the Northern Alliance’s political front by buying of Uzbek and Tadzjik warlords. One prominent member of the opposition with national outreach, Mr. Fahim, is currently serving as his vice-president. This is how he build a patronage-client system only topped by the best patrimonialistic networks set up by dictators in post-colonial Africa. It works like this: clan elders and warlords promise loyalty and votes to Karzai, if Karzai shares bits of his power with them. But this doesn’t mean there is no hope at all for the opposition. One theory goes that Afghans are so fed up with the corruption and the inefficiency of Karzai’s administration that they will disregard the advice of their elders and vote against Karzai. People in remote areas (almost anywhere outside Kabul and the major cities) have nothing to do with Kabul. They have been taking care of themselves during their whole life and stopped expecting support from the government. These votes could be decisive if it wasn’t for the division of the opposition by previous mentioned reasons. The Americans know this as well and are kind of fed up of the corruption in this government. Analysts say that one of their future strategies could be to neglect the central government, which has no power in the provinces anyway, and to invest in local government structures which are in direct contact with the local population

The main challenger for Karzai is a man who’s parents had a lack of creativity. His name is Abdullah Abdullah. He originates from the Panjshir region and therefore has a lot of support from the Mujahedeen in the North. He’s from Tadzjik and Pashtun origin and was a leader of the Tadzjik faction in the Northern Alliance. A poll suggested that Karzai had 42% of the votes while Abdullah had only 7%. But this was before the campaigning started. The constitution states that if none of the candidates wins 50% of the votes, a run-off between the two leading candidates will be organized. Breaking up the opposition, like Karzai did, favours the incumbent but it also makes the event of a run-off more likely. In that case we can expect that the loosing candidates will negotiate deals with the challenger and join up behind him during the run-off. If that would happen, nobody can predict which direction this country is heading up for. (And I’ll probably get a second vacation)

23-07-2009 om 19:37 geschreven door gijoom  

Since a couple of weeks operations Khanjar and Panchai Palang are central in all news bulletins about Afghanistan. Although American and British forces suffered a steep rise in casualties, the operation was cited an ongoing success. Last week, when the operation was entering its third week, I’ve learned in the security briefing that the Americans cleaned up only one district of the Helmand Province. This can hardly be called an achievement if we consider that the insurgents’ strategy is to first withdraw and observe before striking back with a vengeance.

The success of this operation will determine the future of this country. If the British and Americans can’t win over a province while relocating a big part of their available resources combined with a surge in troops, the future of Afghanistan doesn’t look bright. The challenges for the security forces are multiple but the one that causes the most casualties, especially at the British side, are called Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). They use roadside bombs and body-borne IED’s to slow down military convoys in order to attack them in guerrilla-style to cause more damage. British and American forces, aware of these IED’s, need to take counter measures and progress slowly through Helmand Province.

In the meanwhile the Americans don’t forget about Pakistan. During the height of the surge US-drones bombed the border area of Pakistan and Afghanistan and killed dozens of insurgents on the Pakistan side of the border. A regional approach is crucial in this war. In the past insurgents fled to the other side of the border when the ground got too hot under their feet. This time Pakistan’s military was positioned across the border waiting for the insurgents.

I don’t know if it is a logic consequence of the relocation of the military’s resources to the South but in the meanwhile the situation in the North of the country, previous a pretty safe place, is deteriorating. During the day, the situation in the city of Kunduz is bearable but at nightfall the city gets penetrated by insurgents. I heard they even marked a UN-building to warn the local national staff not to come to work anymore because an attack is pending. A source in the Ministry of Interior, who wanted to be anonymous, said that the only reason they are not attacking the insurgents in the Kunduz-area is because it is harvest time. The insurgents control most of the farmlands and force the farmers to pay taxes. An attack on the insurgents in the harvesting period would be a catastrophe not only for the local farmers but also for the food security in the country. We will see what happens in springtime and during winter.

As you can see the dangers for a soldier are totally different than for the expats in Kabul. Before the biggest threat for an expat was being kidnapped by a criminal organisation or the insurgents. I always thought it was better to be kidnapped by a criminal organisation since they are only interested in the ransom. But apparently since recently they prefer to sell the kidnapped person to the insurgents. Anyway, since the latest security briefing the biggest threat changed to a direct attack against a UN-building or staff. I started to wonder how they evaluate this level of threat. Do they conduct interviews with the Taliban? Or they let them fill in some questionnaires through the internet to get to know what their next target is? Personally, I think the only reason they changed the main threat is because elections are on the way.

On a side note, previously I mentioned a general who commanded the Uzbek faction of the Northern Alliance, who was living in the city centre. Well, actually he was my neighbour that time. I forgot his name until I recently read this on the BBC-website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8147383.stm. Apparently he could be responsible for the death of hundreds or thousands of insurgents. Currently he is in exile in Turkey but he owns a TV-station in Kabul next to my previous guesthouse and is reinstated by the government of Afghanistan in the military. If he would be found guilty I wonder who will be brave enough to arrest him. Probably not the Afghan military.

Well that’s all,

take care and until next time,

Gijoom

14-07-2009 om 19:54 geschreven door gijoom  

Good news!!! I found a new guesthouse. It’s very close to the office. It’s a good thing because it’s like a universal desire to live close to your workplace. But the bad thing is that I will really miss my little tours through Kabul. I really enjoyed driving to work, even if it was for only 10 minutes. The place is a bit expensive but quality comes with a price. I have my own toilet and shower. I share a TV-room with 3 other people. There’s a gym, a coffeebar, a pingpong table (luckily for you lorencito, you are not around), a snooker, 2 meals a day, internet and armed guards. Every Thursday we are having a barbecue in our garden. So I think it will be a good place for me. In total around 30 people are living there.

08-07-2009 om 17:36 geschreven door gijoom